USD/RUB: Here’s why the Russian ruble is plummeting

The USD/RUB jumped to a record high on Monday morning as the plot thickened for Russia and Vladimir Putin. The pair rose by more than 30%, reaching an all-time high of 106, meaning that the ruble has fallen by more than 30% this month. 

Russian ruble crashes

The Russian ruble declined sharply on Monday as western countries like the United States and the UK ramped up their pressure campaign against Moscow.

Last week, the US and the European Union announced tough sanctions that will affect most Russian banks and some of the wealthiest people. The UK also announced sanctions on key politicians, including Sergey Lavrov and Vladimir Putin.

During the weekend, they ramped up their pressure campaign by announcing a new set of restrictions that will affect the Russian economy.

For one, they announced that some Russian banks will be excluded from the SWIFT financial network that enables companies and individuals to move money around the world. This will affect the Russian economy because it will make it difficult for foreigners to pay Russian companies.

At the same time, western countries announced that they will restrict some of the Russian central banks’ assets. This means that the bank will have some difficulty accessing its reserves that are stored in countries like the US and the UK.

However, in the past few years, Russia has increasingly been moving its assets from western countries to other places like China. 

USD/RUB forecast

The USD/RUB has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few days as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued. The pair rose to a high of 106. It remains above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while all oscillators like the Relative Strength Index and MACD have moved upwards. 

Therefore, I suspect that the pair will retreat slightly as the overreaction phase ends. If this happens, the pair will remain at above 90 for now.