USD/RUB forecast: Ruble could rebound as commodity prices jump

The USD/RUB pair is hovering near its all-time high as investors avoid the toxic Russian ruble. It is trading at 114.8, which is a few points below its all-time high of 121. It has jumped by over 50% this year and more than 64% from its lowest level in 2021. 

Russia crisis escalates

The Russian ruble has collapsed in the past few three weeks as investors react to the ongoing invasion in Ukraine. 

During the invasion, millions of Ukrainians have become refugees while thousands of Russian and Ukrainian forces have died.

At the same time, western countries have announced major sanctions aimed at causing maximum pressure on Vladimir Putin’s government. 

They have sanctioned the richest people in Russia, including Putin himself. Many companies like Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Starbucks, and Shell have announced that they will leave the country.

At the same time, western countries have announced sanctions on the Central Bank of Russia (CBR). This means that the bank cannot access more than $360 billion stored in western countries. 

As a result, the USD/RUB has surged because the CBR does not have any tools to boost the Russian ruble. In normal times, the bank would buy the Russian ruble when its price crashed. It has also boosted interest rates in a bid to attract depositors.

Still, Russia has some tools at its disposal. For one, it is the third-biggest oil exporter, meaning that the Putin administration is receiving millions of dollars every day. It is also a key seller of natural gas, mostly to Europe. As such, it is benefiting as natural gas prices rise.

Russia is also benefiting from the ongoing rise of nickel, palladium, platinum, and wheat prices. It is still selling these commodities to other countries like in the Middle East and in Asia.

USD/RUB forecast

The daily chart shows that the USD/RUB has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few weeks. As a result, the pair has jumped above all moving averages while all oscillators have been in a strong bullish trend. Most of them have moved to the overbought level.

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the Russian ruble will start falling in the near term as investors price in the rising commodity prices.