Is the EUR/USD a buy ahead of Macron and Marin Le Pen face-off?

on Apr 11, 2022
Updated: Apr 13, 2022
  • The EUR/USD moved sideways after the French election.
  • Emmanuel Macron and Marin Le Pen won the first phase.
  • They will now face off on April 24th.

The EUR/USD price went sideways on Monday morning as the market reflected on the latest French election and the upcoming important economic data. It is trading at 1.0878, where it has been in the past few days.

Macron and Le Pen face-off

France is the second-biggest economy in the European Union with a GDP of over $2.6 trillion. It is significantly smaller than Germany, which has a GDP of more than $3.8 trillion. Therefore, investors follow closely the happenings in the country.

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France went through a national election on Sunday and the results were as most people were expecting. Emmanuel Macron, the current president, took a lead by winning 27.6% of the total vote. He was followed by Marin Le Pen, a far-right candidate who won 23% of the vote. Jean-Luc Melenchon won 22.2% of the total votes.

Therefore, the next phase of the election will take place on April 28th when Macron and Le Pen will face off. Analysts, using two polls carried out on Sunday, showed that Macron had an early lead in the upcoming election. 

A win by Emmanuel Macron will lead to more continuity. He is a believer of the European Union and is closely aligned with Germany and other top countries.  On the other hand, Le Pen is sceptical of the European Union and Nato. She has also talked positively about Russia’s Vladimir Putin and is critical of immigration.

The EUR/USD will next react to the upcoming American inflation numbers scheduled for Wednesday this week. Analysts expect these numbers to show that inflation continued rising sharply in March and there is a likelihood that the trend will continue.

EUR/USD forecast


The EUR/USD pair was little changed on Monday morning after the rance election. On the hourly chart, it has moved slightly below the upper side of the descending channel shown in red. The pair has also moved to the 25-period and 15-period moving averages. It has also moved slightly below the important resistance level at 1.0947. Therefore, the pair will likely keep falling as bears target the lower side of the channel at 1.0840.

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