Bitcoin price: Analyst points to 16-month range bottom at $28k-$32k

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on May 9, 2022
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  • Bitcoin dropped to lows of $30,527, losing 10% of its value in the last 24 hours.
  • An analyst at GlobalBlock says the BTC bottom could be in the $28k-$32k range.
  • Bullish for BTC, he notes, is short term holders’ panic selling while long-term holders grow.

Bitcoin’s slump continued on Monday, with the flagship cryptocurrency suffering a more than 10% dip intraday to fall as low as $30,527. The bleeding with the crypto markets followed last week’s drawdown that had come after losses on Wall Street in the wake of a 50 basis point interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve.

This, together with the Fed’s quantitative tightening, has added to headwinds for the broader market.

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On Monday, on-chain data provider Glassnode noted that Bitcoin’s dip to lows of $33K had pushed the amount of unprofitable BTC supply towards 60%.

This is after another 10% fell into the negative zone with the latest sell-off. Glassnode says there’s potential for more pain if the current bear market takes a route comparable to the historical 2015 and 2018 bear markets.

BTC near the bottom of a 16-month range

Despite the negative outlook and recent rot, Marcus Sotiriou, an analyst at digital asset platform GlobalBlock believes a bounce is imminent.

Commenting on his bullish stance in a note shared on Monday before BTC fell to lows of $30.5k, the analyst noted:

Technically, Bitcoin’s structure is bearish as lower-lows and lower-highs persist, but Bitcoin is now approaching the bottom of the 16-month range. The region near the low of the range, from $28-32k, could be a good region to add to long term holdings from a risk-reward perspective.”

Increase in HODLers suggests possible bounce

Another positive signal is on-chain metrics related to the continued optimism among long-term BTC holders. In his view on HODLer activity, Sotiriou added that Bitcoin that has not moved in the past year is at its all-time high.

Every time a macro bottom has formed in the market previously when this has happened, it has marked a bottom in the crypto market,” he opined.

According to him, the surge in the percentage of BTC dormant for a year is a positive signal that it is short-term holders who are selling while long-term remain steady.

Bitcoin was trading around $31,257, about 9.2% down in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, BTC/USD has declined more than 54% since its all-time highs of $69k reached last November.

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