Guess stock is back to its pre-COVID price: should you buy?

Guess Inc (NYSE: GES) is now back to the price at which it traded before the Coronavirus pandemic, but an Oppenheimer technical analyst says the stock is still not worth owning.

Guess Inc is struggling with structural weakness

This afternoon on CNBC’s “Power Lunch”, Ari Wald said the clothing brand down more than 25% versus the start of 2022 is not a buy until it pulls out of the decade-long structural weakness.

Guess has been making lower highs since 2007. So, it’s just so telling here that the strength when times are good continues to be outweighed by the weakness when times are bad. It’s indicative of structural weakness.

In May, Guess reported better-than-expected net revenue for the fiscal first quarter. Its per-share earnings (adjusted), however, came in shy of the Wall Street estimates.

Guess stock is approaching a crucial support

Higher prices have already started to weigh on consumer spending in recent weeks. To that end, the Oppenheimer analyst says he won’t be surprised even if “GES” breaks below the crucial support at $16 a share.

It’s a stock that’s coming into support at $16 a share. That was the March low. But we see vulnerability of a downside break. So, we’d rather sell strength into $19 resistance that being the stock’s 50-day average.

The apparel retailer currently has about 14% of its float sold short. Last month, it completed an accelerated share repurchase of $175 million.