Pro: Bitcoin’s region of maximum pressure likely in the $10K-$14.5K range
- Bitcoin's 2022 bear market looks 'mild' compared to 2014 and 2018, suggesting more pain is likely.
- Sales exhaustion may give indications of major rallies, but which ultimately flip to lead to new lows.
- If Bitcoin repeats previous cycles, BTC could fall to lows within the $10k-$14.5k region by October.
On-chain analyst Cauê Oliveira says benchmark cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC/USD) could see “maximum pressure” later in the year, highlighting the region around $14,500-$10,000 as the likely bottom for the 2022 bear market.
In a research piece titled ‘Bear Market Rally or the start of a new Bull Market?’, the BlockTrends analyst notes that despite the pain that has characterised the dip from the all-time highs set in 2021, the bear market at its current outlook is “mild” compared to both 2014 and 2018.
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What next: new low, bear market rally or new bull market?
Bitcoin has dropped more than 7% in the past 24 hours to currently trade near $21,760 across major cryptocurrency exchanges and platforms. The declines, which have mirrored losses in the equities market, come after a brief rally to highs above $25,000 last week – a rally that saw BTC break above the crucial 200-week moving average.
Overall though, Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market remains in a markedly clear bear market trend, with lows of $17,600 the trough of a decline that ensued after bulls topped at highs above $69,000 in November last year.
Yet, at current levels, Bitcoin is about 23% up since the June 2022 lows. In hitting above $25k, the gains seen last week had pushed BTC more than 45% from that low.
For comparison, the 2014 bear market saw short term rallies of up to 83% – enough to convince some that the pain was over. The scenario also repeated in 2018, with bear market recovery including rallies of up to 65% before fresh pain took prices to new lows.
Oliveira, pointing to the previous outlook, suggests another “local sales exhaustion” might not translate to a new bull market trend but potentially open up room for a retest of even lower support levels.
If the current movement is repeated, we will find the region of maximum pressure at the end of the year, starting in October. Within a trading range between $10,000 – $14,500.”
Notably, the dump to current lows or even below $20,000 may yet give way for fresh upside pressure and see BTC revisit recent highs. Bulls could even target fresh resistance in the $28k-$30k region (or higher).