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Bitcoin price retreats below $19,000 ahead of highly anticipated CPI

on Oct 13, 2022
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  • Bitcoin price fell about 2.5% ahead of key US inflation data out at 08:30 ET on Thursday.
  • BTC tested support near $18,600 and could see fresh losses if there's a CPI surprise.
  • An upward reaction could push BTC back to the $20,000 level.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has retreated by more than 2.5% in the past 24 hours, dropping below the $19,000 level again.

However, while the overall picture remains one of massive accumulation as seen over the past several weeks, and which continues to be the case given bulls are holding near the critical support zone marking 2017 bull cycle high, price is below $19,000.

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On Thursday morning, Bitcoin traded to lows of $18,652 on major cryptocurrency exchanges as shown by data on CoinGecko, marking another dip ahead of key US inflation data. As such, BTC’s weekly range high of around $20,240 leaves the current price levels nearly 8% lower and vulnerable to fresh dips if markets erupt chaotically to the inflation data out this morning.

Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe notes the market anticipation around CPI as the reason for today’s downside for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Markets await US inflation data

While Bitcoin holds the key levels below the $20k mark, a dump across the equities market could mean further losses for BTC. The outlook follows a potential flip into sell mode for stocks if investors glean from today’s data that price pressures are set to remain elevated.

As well as being an indicator of whether the US Federal Reserve will go for a fourth straight higher interest rate or not, an uptick in Core CPI – which omits food and energy – would boost not just the dollar but also Treasury yields. This could add to sell pressures in the risk asset markets, including crypto.

Analysts expect the September CPI data to show a tick down from 8.3% to 8.1% year-over-year, but the annual ‘Core’ reading is anticipated to go up from 6.3% to 6.5%. While these data points are anticipated, the potential for even a little beat or miss could mean fresh downward moves.

The downward possibility is also there given yesterday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) that showed a month-on-month growth of 0.4% against expected 0.2%.

The PPI and CPI tend to head the same direction, suggesting a CPI release with MoM of over 0.2% will likely spook investors.