USD/RUB exchange rate nears 80 as crude oil prices slip

on Mar 17, 2023
  • The USD/RUB exchange rate has continued rising in the past few months.
  • It crossed the key resistance level at 80, the highest point on December 30.
  • Crude oil and natural gas prices have been under pressure recently.

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The USD/RUB exchange rate continued rising this week as the price of crude oil and natural gas remained deeply in the red. The forex cross jumped to a high of 77.64, the highest level since April 2022. It has spiked by over 47% from its lowest level last year.

Crude oil and natural gas prices

There are three main factors driving the USD to RUB forex pair. First, the price of crude oil has remained underwater for the most part of the year. This week, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the American benchmark fell to $66, the lowest level since 2021. In the same period, Brent, the European benchmark, dropped to about $72 per barrel. 

Crude oil is an important part of the Russian economy since it brings the most foreign exchange. Therefore, there are concerns that the country will see less foreign capital in the coming months. Some analysts warn that oil prices will remain low for longer than expected because of the slow recovery of the Chinese economy.

Second, natural gas prices are not doing well either. Data compiled by Investing shows that the overall natural gas price has dropped to about $2.52, which was much lower than the 30-day high of about $3. It has dropped by more than 46% in the past 12 months as Russia works to find alternative sources of its commodity.

Finally, the rising global risks have brought more investors to the safety of the US dollar. The dollar index has jumped to about $104 in the past few days amid risks in the banking sector. There is a likely that these risks will increase in the coming months. Geopolitical risks have also jumped, as the US and China continue flexing their muscle on a global stage.

USD/RUB forex technical analysis


USD/RUB chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD to RUB exchange rate has been in a slow bullish trend in the past few months. It has jumped from last year’s low of about 50 to almost 80. Along the way, the pair has moved above the key resistance point at 74.88, the highest point on December 30. It also remains above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages.

Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as buyers target the next key resistance point at 80. A drop below the support level at 73 will invalidate the bullish view. This view is in line with my most recent USDRUB forecast.