Soybeans prices forecast as Brazil exports jump

on Apr 27, 2023
Updated: Jun 29, 2024
  • Soybeans prices have crashed in the past seven days straight.
  • Brazilian exports to China have jumped sharply this year.
  • The downward trend will likely continue in the near term.

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Soybeans prices have dropped in the past seven straight days as concerns about the rising Brazilian exports remain. The price of soybeans dropped to a low of $1,443, the lowest level since March 27. In all, prices have crashed by more than 18% from the highest level in 2022.

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Brazilian exports jump

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Soybeans prices have dropped in the past few months even as experts predict that supplies will dip this year. In its recent WASDE report, the USDA said that global supply this year will be characterized by lower production, crush, and exports.

It is estimated that global production will drop by 5.5 million to 369.6 million. Exports from countries like Argentina and Uruguay will be offset by a jump in Brazilian exports.

Argentina, which ia going through an economic crisis, will see its production drop by 6 million to 27 million tons. Brazil will boost its production by 1 million tons to 154 million. The report added:

“Soybean exports are lowered 0.4 million tons to 168.0 million mainly on lower exports for Uruguay. Imports are lowered for Bangladesh, Egypt, and Pakistan and raised for Argentina. Soybean ending stocks are raised fractionally with higher stocks for China and Brazil.”

Meanwhile, in China, crushed margins have improved because of the relatively lower prices. According to S&P Global, the spot meal price of soybean dropped to 4,400/mt last week. 

Therefore, in the long term, the falling prices will lead to a move to other crops, which will boost soybeans prices. This happens because soybeans are highly cyclical products. For now, however, the rising Brazilian exports will lead to weaker prices for a while. 

Soybeans prices technical analysis 

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soybeans price

Soybeans chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the soybeans prices have been in a strong bearish trend in the past few weeks. It has dropped from a high of 1,544 in February to a low of 1,445. As it dropped, it moved below the 50-day moving average and is slightly above the key support at $1,410. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have drifted downwards. It has also moved to the ultimate support of the Murrey Math Lines. Therefore, the downward trend will likely continue in the next few days as sellers target the next ke

Pakistan Soybeans Commodity