LAZR stock price forecast as Luminar sits at a key support

By:
on May 15, 2023
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  • LAZR share price has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few months.
  • The stock has plunged by more than 85% from the all-time high.
  • The shares are at risk of falling by 27% to $4.

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Luminar (NASDAQ: LAZR) stock price is hovering near the lowest level since January as concerns about the company’s profitability continues. The shares plunged to a low of $5.51, ~47% below the highest level this year. It remains ~88% below its all-time high, giving it a market cap of over $2.1 billion.

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Luminar profitability concerns

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Luminar Technologies is a company building light detection and ranging sensor, also known a lidar. The technology’s goal is to promote vehicle safety as most of them embrace autonomous technologies. It provides Iris, a platform it sells to automotive companies like Polestar and Mercedes Benz.

Luminar is also building its software, which provides core sensor software, perception software, and sentinel. Other leading companies that are using Luminar’s technologies are Volvo, SAIC, Nissan, and Daimler, which account for more than 50% of its total business.

Luminar Technologies business is doing well as its revenue surges. The most recent results showed that Luminar’s revenue jumped by more than 1112% in the quarter to $14.5 million. Its gross loss, however, jumped to $14.6 million.

Luminar also affirmed its forward guidance in its results. It expects that its revenue will grow by 100% this year. It also hopes to have revenues of between $15 million and $17 million in the second quarter. The company also has strong financial results, with over $400 million in liquidity. It expects to end the year with $300 million in cash.

Luminar faces two main challenges. First, it is facing substantial competition from the likes of Velodyne Lidar, Aptiv, Aeye, and Cepton among others. Fortunately, Luminar has a bigger market share than other companies. The other challenge is the lack of profitability in the industry in the near term.

Analysts have a mixed outlook of the LAZR stock price. Those at Jefferies recently lowered their target from $12 to $10. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup lowered their target to $4 and $19, respectively, as we wrote here. JP Morgan believes that the shares will jump to $20.

LAZR stock price forecast

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LAZR chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the LAZR share price has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few months. The shares have moved below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement point. Further, the shares have moved below all moving averages. It is also sitting at the key support at $5.51, where it struggled to drop below since February.

Therefore, the LAZR stock price will likely continue falling as sellers target the next key support level at $4, which is about 27% below the current level.

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