USD/PHP sits at crucial resistance as Philippine inflation cools

The USD/PHP exchange rate moved sideways after the latest Philippine consumer inflation data. The USD to peso was trading at 56.20, ~0.80% above the lowest level this month. In all, the pair has jumped by about 4.7% above the lowest level this year.

Philippine inflation data

The most important PHP news was the latest Philippine consumer inflation data. According to the country’s statistics agency, the headline consumer inflation was unchanged in May. Analysts were expecting the inflation figure to jump by 0.2% on a month-on-month basis.

The Philippines’ inflation has been falling on a YoY basis. It dropped to 6.1% in May, the fourth month of declines. It peaked at almost 9% earlier this year. It remains significantly above the pre-pandemic level of almost 2%.

Core inflation dropped from 7.9% in April to 7.7% in May this year. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the country’s central bank will decide to keep interest rates unchanged in the coming meetings. In its meeting in May, the bank left the official cash rate at 6.25% following several months of aggressive increases. The bank believes that inflation will average 5.25% this year. 

Therefore, with the central bank set to leave interest rates unchanged, investors will focus on the Federal Reserve. It is unclear whether the Fed will decide to hike rates or leave them unchanged this month. In a statement last week, the new vice chair said that he supported a strategic pause. Such a pause will give the Fed an opportunity to assess the impact of the past hikes for longer.

USD/PHP forecast

USD/PHP chart by TradingView

The USD/PHP price has been in a tight range in the past few months. As shown above, the pair is consolidating at an important resistance point at 56.19, where it has failed to move above since December last year.

The USD to PHP rate is being supported by the 25-period and 50-period moving averages while the MACD is stuck at the neutral point. Most importantly, the pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern that is shown in black.

Therefore, the pair will likely have a bullish breakout as buyers target the year-to-date high of 56.46. A move above that level will target the next resistance point at 57.0.