Silver price forecast: outlook after hitting key support
- Silver price bounced back after the latest China economic numbers.
- The country’s unemployment rate dropped to 5.2% in August.
- China’s and US retail sales bounced back in August.
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Silver price bounced back on Friday morning as investors cheered the impressive Chinese economic numbers and the new stimulus package. It soared to a high of $23.05, a few points higher than this week’s low of $22.26. This price is ~11.47% below the highest level this year, meaning it has moved into a correction zone.
China economic rebound
Copy link to sectionSilver and other metal prices bounced back after the impressive Chinese economic numbers. According to the statistics agency, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.25 in August as retail sales jumped by 4.2%.
Additional data revealed that China’s industrial production rose by 4.5% from a year earlier. That was the biggest increase in years. Fixed asset investments rose by 3.2% on a YoY basis.
These numbers mean that the Chinese economy has started recovering as Beijing implements numerous stimulus measures. The most recent stimulus package came on Friday when the PBOC decided to cut the amount of reserves that lenders hold for the second time.
The new measure means that banks will now be able to release over $68.8 billion to the market in new loans. Also, the bank decided to roll over Rmb591 billion worth of medium-term policy loans.
Silver price is quite sensitive to activities in China because of its vast demand. It is the biggest consumer of silver in the world. Therefore, these robust numbers mean that demand for silver likely rose.
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It is also rising after the relatively strong numbers from the United States on Thursday. The headline and core retail sales rose in August even as inflation rose for the second straight month. Inflation rose to 3.7% in August while core CPI dropped to 4.3%. (Read more here).
Silver price forecast
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The daily chart shows that silver prices bottomed at $22.26 this week. This was an important level since it has been the lowest point since June this year. The price remains below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and the crucial resistance at $24.60 (February high).
Silver has also formed a morning star candlestick pattern. Therefore, the outlook for the metal is slightly bullish, with the next level to watch being at $24. The bullish view will become invalid if the price drops below the crucial support at $22.26.
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