Brent crude oil price forecast: technical analysis

Crude oil prices have recoiled. Brent, the global benchmark, is in track for the third straight week as the recent momentum faded. It dropped to a low of $81.20 on Wednesday, much lower than the year-to-date high of $95.86. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) plunged to $76.90, also lower from the YTD high of $94.80.

The price of crude oil is tumbling as investors focus on the ongoing demand and supply dynamics. In the demand side, Russia and OPEC agreed to maintain their supply curbs, which are intended to boost prices. 

Also, the recent fears that the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas will lead to supply disruptions have not materialised. While the war is going on, other regional powers like Iran and Saudi Arabia have not been impacted.

Meanwhile, as I wrote in this article, Russia has continued pumping crude oil despite the ongoing sanctions. The country is taking advantage of older tankers to ship millions of barrels of oil every day. Newer oil traders have also replaced other western companies like Trafigura and Vitol.

Further, Brent crude oil price has jumped because of the strong US dollar. The dollar index has surged to over $106 this year, making it expensive for emerging market countries to buy oil. Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, will talk later on Wednesday.

Therefore, there are some concerns that oil will continue rising. In a recent statement, analysts at JPMorgan warned that oil could surge to $150. The World Bank also warned that the oil could jump to over $150 if the war in Ukraine continues.

Brent crude oil price forecast

UKOIL chart by TradingView

Technical analysis is a good way to predict where a financial asset will be in the near and longer term. On the daily chart, we see that the price formed a small head and shoulders pattern. In price action analysis, this pattern is one of the most bearish ones in the market.

Brent has also crashed below the key support level at $88.2, the highest point in April and August of this year. Most notably, the 50-day and 100-day moving averages are about to make a bearish crossover while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing the oversold level.

Therefore, the outlook for Brent is bearish, with the next level to watch being at $80. A break below that level will see it crash to the next support at $71.65, the lowest level in May and June.