Dollar index technical analysis: DXY will likely continue the down-trend after retracing to the 104.0 resistance level

DXY chart and technical analysis

The US dollar index is recovering from the recent drop and will likely retrace back to the 140.00 resistance level before dropping further. The price will probably continue the bearish trend from the 140.00 resistance level.

The technical indicators indicate that the price will likely drop from the 140.00 resistance level as it is also around the 0.5 Fibonacci level. There is also a bearish order block and imbalance that will likely push the price down.

Moreover, the bearish head and shoulder pattern around the same price level is another confirmation of the potential continuation of the downward trend. I am expecting the price to drop to the 100.634 support level in the coming days and weeks.

US dollar index fundamental analysis

Fundamentally, the jobless data will be published today, if the data turns out negative the US dollar index will drop and if the data turns out positive the US dollar index will go up.

In the longer term, the feds are likely to reduce the interest rates in 2024 which will push the price of DXY down and the price of the US dollar index can drop substantially.

US dollar index trade idea takeaways

• The price of the US dollar index is likely to drop after retesting the 140.00 resistance level.
•  The price is likely to drop to the 100.632 support level in the coming days.
• Multiple take-profit levels have been added to secure profit along the way.
• The risk-to-reward ratio on this trade is 1:4.4.
• The entry and stoploss prices have been placed at secure levels with the least probability of getting hit.
• Good luck!