USD/RUB: Ruble stable ahead of Tucker Carlson Putin interview

The USD/RUB exchange rate held steady on Tuesday as investors and policymakers waited for the upcoming Tucker Carlson’s interview with Vladimir Putin. The pair was trading at the key psychological point at 90, where it has been in the past few weeks. This price is about 11.8% below the highest point in 2023.

Tucker Carlson and Vladimir Putin interview

The USD to RUB pair moved sideways as focus shifted to an upcoming interview with Putin. This will be an important interview because it will be the first time that he has talked to a Western journalist since the war started.

In it, Putin will likely explain his rationale for invading Ukraine and what it will take to end the war. In his past statements, Putin has claimed that the invasion was necessary to stop the country from joining NATO, an organisation that was formed to fend off the Soviet Union.

Tucker Carlson has supported this view in the past. In a past Fox News segment, he argued that the US would do the same if Mexico or Canada partnered with its adversaries like Russia and China. He also pointed to the existing US sanctions and hostility towards Cuba.

Putin will also likely talk about the strength and resilience of the Russian economy amid the significant Western sanctions. Indeed, Russia has done well in the past two years, with the unemployment rate being below 3%. 

Russia’s industrial production has jumped as the country ramps up military equipment manufacturing. Also, its energy sector has remained resilient as the country has pivoted its oil and gas sales to Asian countries like China and India. To a large extent, Russia’s oil has remained above the price cap imposed by Western countries. 

Most notably, Russian stocks have also jumped. As I wrote a while back, the MOEX index is hovering near its all-time high having surged by 188% from its lowest point in 2023. 

USD/RUB analysis

USD/RUB chart by TradingView

The Russian ruble has also not collapsed as well. While the USD/RUB exchange rate initially surged to 153.92, it has now crashed to 90. This price is about 22% above where it was when the invasion started. Notably, this price action is also in line with the performance of other emerging market currencies.

On the daily chart, the USD to ruble exchange rate has remained in a tight range in the past few days. It has remained above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It is also slightly below the upper side of the symmetrical triangle pattern.

Therefore, the pair will likely retreat in the coming days or weeks as sellers target the lower side of the triangle pattern at 86.