US GDP data today: economic growth remains steady, if slowed, at 3.2%

The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its US GDP quarter-on-quarter data was released today, with its “second estimate” numbers for Q4 of 2023.

The US economic growth rate is currently at 3.2%, a significant slowdown compared to the 4.90% GDP growth rate of Q3 2023.

This is broadly in line with expectations – but slightly lower than expected. On January 25^th, the BEA estimated that these figures would be 3.30%.

However, this is still higher than the long-term average of the US GDP growth rate of the past few years, which is around 3.19%.

Year-on-year, this is an increase from the 2.60% GDP growth rate in Q4 of 2022 – albeit not as large a one as analysts were expecting.

A deceleration in growth

The BEA said this in relation to the numbers this afternoon in a statement:

Compared to the third quarter of 2023, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and slowdowns in federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and consumer spending. Imports decelerated.”

A slowdown still ahead?

Respected finance institution Swiss Re Group recently upgraded its US economic growth outlook significantly from 1.3% growth to 2.2% growth overall for the year. However, they also said that:

The US economic outlook is less robust than the headline forecast suggests. We still see a slowdown with four quarters of below-trend growth ahead.”