Platinum price forecast: on the cusp of a 15% jump?

By:
on Apr 10, 2024
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  • Platinum prices have surged hard in the past few weeks.
  • The industry is going through a major supply deficit.
  • It is also benefiting from the ongoing weakness in the EV industry.

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Platinum price continued bouncing back this week as demand for precious and industrial metals rose. It jumped to a high of $988 on Wednesday, its highest point since December 29th. It has jumped by more than 13% from its lowest point in March.

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Metals are soaring

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Platinum price is doing well as metals continue jumping. The other precious metals like gold and silver have all jumped to significant highs. Similarly, other industrial metals like iron ore and copper have drifted upwards.

Platinum is rising as investors focus on the electric vehicle (EV) industry. While global EV sales are expected to rise, the trajectory will be slower in the coming months. As a result, there are serious doubts about whether the world will transition fully to EVs.

Indeed, most Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) companies like Toyota, General Motors, Ford, and Tata Motors are thriving. That is a sign that demand for palladium will continue growing, albeit at a slower pace in the coming years.

Recent data shows that the platinum industry will remain in a deficit this year. According to the World Platinum Investment Council, the industry moved to a deficit of 878 koz in 2023 as demand jumped by 25% and supply crashed by 7,131 koz. 

The organisation expects that this trend will continue this year as the deficit will move to 408 koz this year. This trend is happening because of challenges in the mining and recycling industries while demand from automakers is continuing.

Recent data shows that industrial and manufacturing production is continuing rising. In the US, the manufacturing PMI jumped to its highest point since 2022. Chinese manufacturing output has also continued soaring.

Platinum price is also benefiting from the ongoing demand for precious metals, which have become safe havens at a time when inflation in the US is still stubbornly high. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) has moved above 3%.

Platinum price forecast

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Platinum chart by TradingView

Turning to the daily chart, we see that the price of platinum has continued rising in the past few weeks and is now at its highest point since December.

The metal has moved above the Supertrend indicator as the 50-day and 25-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Further, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing the overbought level.

The Stochastic Oscillator has moved to the overbought level. Therefore, the outlook for platinum is still bullish, with the next point to watch will be at $1,013, the highest swing on December 28th. 

A break above the key resistance at $1,013 will point to further gains at $1,132, its highest point in April last year. That target is about 15% above the current level.

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