Is Bank of America’s stock rally here to stay?

on May 24, 2024
  • Bank of America's stock surges post Q1 earnings beat.
  • Analysts upgrade BofA to Outperform on strong performance.
  • Technical analysis suggests resistance near $40.50, immediate support at $34.15.

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Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) has been on a remarkable journey, experiencing a robust rally in its stock price since October 2023. The bank’s latest quarterly earnings report for Q1 2024 surpassed Wall Street expectations, driven by growth in both net interest income and noninterest income, particularly buoyed by a rebound in investment banking.

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The bank’s adjusted EPS of $0.83 for Q1 exceeded analysts’ average estimate of $0.77, showcasing a positive trajectory from the previous quarter and the same period last year. Notably, Bank of America’s Wealth Management division achieved record revenue, with notable increases in client balances, while its investment banking segment witnessed a rebound. Additionally, the sales and trading businesses reported their strongest first quarter performance in over a decade.

Analysts are taking notice of Bank of America’s potential, with Wolfe Research recently upgrading the stock to Outperform from Peer Perform. This upgrade reflects optimism surrounding the bank’s impending inflection point in net interest income (NII).

Despite previous concerns about valuation and rate upside, Bank of America’s improving asset repricing trends, as evidenced in its Q1 2024 results, suggest a promising outlook for future earnings growth.

As we reflect on Bank of America’s recent performance and the factors influencing its stock price, it’s evident that the bank is navigating both opportunities and challenges in the market. While the stock has witnessed a notable rally, prompting optimism among investors, questions linger about its sustainability amidst market volatility.

However, with solid fundamentals, promising earnings, and analyst upgrades, there’s a sense of cautious optimism surrounding Bank of America’s future. Now, armed with this fundamental understanding, let’s delve deeper into the technical analysis to gain insights into the stock’s potential trajectory moving forward.

Confronting resistance amidst the upward surge

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Bank of America’s stock has undergone a remarkable surge since October 2023, maintaining its upward trajectory. However, it now stands at a crucial juncture. Hovering near the significant 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $40.50, drawn from its peak in February 2022 to its low in October 2023, the stock encounters a formidable short-term resistance.

BAC chart by TradingView

For investors and traders bullish on Bank of America, a prudent approach is advised. Monitoring its price action closely, an entry should be considered only upon a weekly close above $40.50, with a protective stop loss set at $36.65. Should the rally persist, the next obstacle lies at $44.7, presenting an opportune moment for profit-taking.

Conversely, traders adopting a bearish stance find themselves presented with a compelling opportunity. Shorting the stock at current levels above $39.5, with a stop loss positioned conservatively at $40.7, offers an attractive risk-reward ratio. Patience is key as one awaits a moderation in upward momentum. Should the stock retreat, immediate support is anticipated at $34.15, followed by medium-term support near $31.4, where profits can be booked.

Bank of America Stock Market Trading Ideas