French elections: National Rally is set to win and here's why it's more important than you might think

France stands at a political crossroads, casting votes in one of its most significant elections in years.

The far-right National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, is on the brink of a historic breakthrough, with the potential to govern and take control of the National Assembly. Yet, a political deadlock looms large.

National Rally's surge in the first round

In a dramatic turn, the RN triumphed in the first round of snap parliamentary elections last Sunday, prompting over 200 rival candidates to withdraw in a strategic move to block the far right.

Voting opened in mainland France at 08:00 (06:00 GMT), with the first exit polls expected 12 hours later.

This election is set against the backdrop of President Emmanuel Macron’s high-stakes decision to dissolve parliament and call for new elections after his centrist party suffered a crushing defeat by the RN in the European elections on June 9.

Macron's gamble aims to curb the far-right's surge but risks backfiring. Though Macron will remain president until 2027, he may have to navigate a potentially adversarial new government and prime minister, possibly Bardella, if the RN wins.

Since Macron's surprise announcement, France's political landscape has shifted rapidly, with alliances forming and breaking in real-time, adding to the uncertainty.

Predicting the election outcomes is challenging, especially with France’s intricate two-round voting system across 577 constituencies where local dynamics play a crucial role.

Why this election matters?

This election is monumental. The far right has a plausible shot at forming a government in a nuclear-armed, permanent member of the UN Security Council, a key player in global security from the North Atlantic to the Pacific.

The political daily Politico reported that the RN's skepticism of France’s involvement in the EU and NATO could weaken both institutions significantly.

Financial markets worldwide are jittery, fearing that these political tensions might destabilize the world’s seventh-largest economy, potentially igniting instability in the eurozone's heart. This is arguably Europe’s most consequential election in decades.

Likelihood of a far-right victory

The burning question remains: Will the anti-immigration National Rally govern France next month? Despite the RN’s first-round lead last Sunday, the prospects of an outright far-right victory diminished this week.

Centrist and left-wing candidates have reluctantly united to thwart Le Pen’s party. Hundreds of candidates withdrew from races across France’s 577 constituencies to consolidate the anti-RN vote.

According to the latest polls from Ipsos, the National Rally is projected to secure 170 to 205 seats in the new chamber, compared to 88 in the outgoing one, falling short of the 289-seat majority.

The left alliance, the New Popular Front, is predicted to win 145 to 175 seats, while Macron’s centrist coalition is expected to lag with 118 to 148 seats, down from 250 in the outgoing chamber.

Heightened tensions and security

With the Paris Olympics set to begin on July 26, France was already on high alert. Now, 30,000 police officers are deployed amid rising political tensions.

Fears of post-election violence in Paris and other cities led to the banning of a planned protest outside the National Assembly on Sunday evening.

Key figures like Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella have already secured their seats by winning more than half the vote in the first round, but about 500 contests remain to be decided in run-offs involving two or three candidates.

Historic gains for the National Rally

The June 30 first round marked the RN’s largest gains ever, propelling the anti-immigration, nationalist party to the forefront.

Over 49 million registered voters will decide which party controls the National Assembly, France’s influential lower house, and who becomes the next prime minister.

If Macron’s centrist majority erodes further, he will have to share power with parties opposing his pro-business, pro-European Union policies.

In a notable upset, former conservative cabinet minister Olivier Marleix was defeated by far-right candidate Olivier Dubois. Both advanced to the run-off alongside a candidate from the left-wing New Popular Front, which holds second place nationally.

Should the National Rally secure an absolute majority, according to the Associated Press, it would be France’s first far-right government since World War II, with Jordan Bardella poised to become prime minister.

Although polls indicate the RN might win the most seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, they may still fall short of the 289 needed for a majority.

Regardless, this would mark a historic moment as a party once ostracized for its xenophobic and Holocaust-downplaying roots becomes France’s dominant political force.

Global security in question

The 2024 French parliamentary elections have captured global attention, with the far-right National Rally on the brink of potentially governing France.

As voters cast their ballots, the world watches closely, aware that the outcomes of this election will resonate far beyond France’s borders.

The potential shift in political power could redefine France’s role in international organizations like the EU and NATO, impacting global security and economic stability. France stands at a pivotal moment, with its political future hanging in the balance.