USD/ZAR forecast: wedge forms ahead of Fed, SARB rate decisions

The USD/ZAR exchange rate retreated on Monday morning as tensions between the US and South Africa rose. It dropped to a low of 18.20, 5.40% below the highest level this year as focus shifts to the upcoming Fed and South Africa interest rate decision. 

US and South Africa tensions

The US and South Africa are in a bitter feud that may have major implications in the future. The root cause of these issues is a lawsuit that South Africa filed in the ICC against Israel.

In January, Donald Trump accused South Africa of discriminating against the white population after a bill on land issues passed. The bill made it legal for the US to take largely unused land and pay a fair price. 

These tensions escalated during the weekend as Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared that South Africa’s ambassador to the US, Ebrahim Rasool, was not welcome to the United States. He called him a “race-baiting politician who hates America and Trump.”

There is a risk that the US will implement some tariffs or sanctions against South Africa. Such a move would disrupt trade volumes worth over $25.5 billion annually.

Fed and SARB interest rate decision

The next key catalyst for the USD/ZAR exchange rate will be the upcoming Federal Reserve and South Africa Reserve Bank (SARB) interest rate decisions. 

Economists expect that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at 4.50%. It will then maintain the view that it will not be in a hurry to cut interest rates until inflation moves towards 2%.

The Fed is concerned that Donald Trump is engineering a self-inflicted recession by implementing tariffs. As a result, the Atlanta FedNow data estimates that the US economy will contract by about 2.4% this month. 

The Fed is also concerned about inflation. While last week’s US inflation report was encouraging, it did not include Trump’s tariffs. Analysts anticipate that inflation will reman high as companies adjust for tariffs.

The USD/ZAR exchange rate will also react to the upcoming South Africa interest rates. Recent data showed that the country’s inflation has risen in the past few months. It jumped to 3.2% in January, the highest point since September last year.

The country’s statistics agency will publish the latest inflation data on March 19, and analysts anticipate the figure to come in at 3.4%. 

USD/ZAR technical analysis

The daily chart shows that the USD to ZAR exchange rate has come under pressure in the past few months. It dropped from a high of 19.218 in February to the current 18.20. This decline happened as tensions between the US and South Africa rose. 

The pair has formed a falling wedge chart pattern, which is characterized by two falling and converging trendlines. These two lines are now nearing their confluence levels. 

The USD/ZAR pair has formed a bullish pennant pattern too. Therefore, there is a likelihood that it will bounce back and possibly hit the key resistance level at 19.21, its highest level this year, which is about 5.6% from the current level.