Gasoline demand falters even as exports hold steady

Despite global gasoline exports maintaining levels similar to last year at this time, emerging demand data suggests a persistent weakness in the market as the peak summer driving season draws closer, Vortexa said on Friday.

Excessive oil supply is struggling to find sufficient demand, leading to a glut of cargoes being diverted to storage or alternative buyers, the energy analytics agency said. 

Global supply

Seaborne gasoline shipments globally this spring are consistent with the elevated seasonal levels observed last year.

Pacific Basin cargo loadings in March exceeded the 2016-19 seasonal average by 21%, as increased export capabilities compensated for reduced Atlantic Basin volumes, Vortexa data showed. 

Conversely, in the Atlantic Basin, strong early European demand for summer-grade gasoline strengthened domestic margins (Argus), resulting in more refined products being used locally. 

This also constricted transatlantic arbitrage opportunities due to a less optimistic demand forecast in the western Atlantic, Mick Strautmann, market analyst at Vortexa said in a report.

Soft appetite for gasoline

Gasoline margin outlook hinges on demand fundamentals.

Gasoline import volumes at the world's top 150 ports, used as an indicator of demand, have shown a distinct decline since the start of 2025, according to Vortexa. 

Imports this year are 3% lower than in the same period last year, with the majority of this decrease originating from the Atlantic Basin, the data showed.

“This pattern follows an already sluggish 2024, suggesting that even with ample supply, buyers are reactionary to prompt demand rather than building summer stocks in advance,” Strautmann said. 

Caribbean absorbs excess supply

Imports into Petroleum Administration for Defense District 1 (excluding Florida) are relatively weak for this time of year, 6% lower year-over-year in April despite declining stocks, according to the Energy Information Administration.

“With fewer barrels landing in one of Atlantic Basin’s primary markets, exporters have shifted flows to Caribbean storage,” Strautmann added.

Caribbean import levels in 2025 have already twice reached their seasonal peaks. 

April imports are currently 13% greater than they were at the same time last year, Vortexa data showed.

Crude oil inflows into storage tanks are primarily driven by shipments from the Bahamas and the US Virgin Islands. 

This likely assures PADD 1 purchasers of a readily available supply to meet potential demand surges during the summer driving season.

Surplus

Meanwhile, excess Atlantic Basin crude oil exceeded Caribbean storage capacity, leading to extended shipments through the Panama Canal to compensate for refinery shutdowns in PADD 5.

Refinery outages in PADD 5 led to a decrease in operational runs to 72% in March, according to the EIA.

Northwest Europe and India's West Coast sent a record 22 cargoes to PADD 5 during March and April, according to Vortexa data, marking a dataset high for any two-month span.

Strautmann noted:

New refineries add to pressure

Dangote's 650,000 barrels per day refinery in Nigeria has already reduced European exports to West Africa. 

However, scheduled seasonal maintenance at the refinery may temporarily improve margins before the driving season begins.

Mexico's Dos Bocas refinery (340,000 barrels a day) has recently loaded its initial diesel shipment. 

However, an increase in operational runs has not yet been seen, meaning the intended 170,000 barrels per day gasoline production remains unachieved at this time, according to Vortexa.

“Looking forward, robust summer driving will be needed to sustain the recent crack-spread rally,” Strautmann said.