Copper price forecast: will the bullish trend continue?

Copper price remained range-bound for the second session on Thursday after a corrective pullback from the 17% surge that has COMEX futures hit a fresh record high on Tuesday. This follows Trump’s surprise announcement to impose higher-than-expected tariffs on copper imports. 

Notably, the US imports close to half of its copper. While President Trump strives to boost domestic production, experts note that it will take decades to ramp up and fulfill its demand, and at a hefty cost. 

Since February, US traders have been preparing for copper levies, stocking up aggressively from Europe and Asia. While the announced tariffs are higher than expected, the ample stocks have yielded a corrective pullback for COMEX copper price. Besides, the market anticipates negotiations and exemptions.

Copper price gains capped by aggressive buying

In late February, President Trump ordered the Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, to investigate US copper imports under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. The team is meant to conclude the investigation within 270 days; a deadline that lapses in November. However, Lutnick has indicated that the review on the impact of copper imports on national security is already complete. 

On Wednesday, Trump took to his Truth Social, confirming that the 50% levies on copper imports will be in effect from 1st August. He stated, “This 50% TARIFF will reverse the Biden Administration’s thoughtless behavior, and stupidity. America will, once again, build a DOMINANT Copper Industry”. 

In reaction to Trump’s statement, COMEX copper futures rallied by about 17% to a new record high at $5.89 per pound on Tuesday. In comparison, the global benchmark, LME (London Metal Exchange) rose by just 0.3%.

Read more: Barrick CEO remains bullish on copper amid US tariff uncertainty

While the knee-jerk reaction pushed the red metal to the overbought territory, it has since reported a corrective pullback while holding steady above the previous record high of $5.37 hit in late March 2025. At the time of writing, COMEX copper price was at $5.62 per pound.

In the short term, copper price is set to remain on an uptrend amid the persistent trade tensions and fresh tariff threats. However, its gains might be capped by the aggressive imports by US buyers. Since tariffs on copper imports were flaunted in early 2025, US buyers have been stocking up; a trend that has seen LME inventories drop by about 80% year-to-date.

Read more: Freeport-McMoRan shares rise on Trump’s 50% copper tariffs: why is it a ‘top pick’

COMEX copper price technical analysis

After pulling back from the fresh record high hit on Tuesday, copper price is now at the periphery of the overbought territory with a relative strength index (RSI) of 69. With the fresh tariff threats, the entry of more buyers has steadied it above the crucial zone of $5.50. 

In the ensuing sessions, the range between the resistance-turn-support zone of 5.37 and the upper level of $5.72 will be worth watching. Above that zone, the bulls will be striving to retest the record high at $5.89. This bullish thesis will be valid for as long as copper price holds steady above the support level of $5.22.