GLD ETF stock has stalled: time to buy or sell?

GLD gold ETF held steady in the new week as the gold price found support in heightened safe-haven appeal. It extended the gains recorded late last week to trade at a one-month high in early Monday session as the market reacted to President Trump’s fresh tariff threats.

Gold price has surged by about 27% since the start of the year with central bank buying and market uncertainties being key bullish factors. However, other precious metals like silver and platinum are outperforming the lustrous metal after recently hitting multi-year highs. 

On Friday, platinum price extended its price to a fresh 11-year high at $1,466.05 as the safe haven appeal and ongoing shift from the more expensive gold bolsters its demand. The precious metal has been in the green for six consecutive weeks, having surged by around 60% year-to-date. Similarly, silver price hit a fresh 14-year high in early Monday session at $39 on the back of China’s positive trade data and spillage from gold’s historic rally.

Tariff jitters, US CPI shape gold price path

On Saturday, President Trump gave ultimatums to the European Union and Mexico; declaring 30% levies on the two entities as from 1st August. This is the latest wave of tariff threats from the US administration after Trump set out new tariff rates for Brazil and Canada. He declared 35% levy on Canadian imports and a blanket rate of 15% to 20% on its other trading partners. 

On the one hand, the market appears to be losing confidence that the United States will follow through with this aggressive wave of tariffs after backing down from some harsh ones in the recent past. Nonetheless, the persistent trade tensions and concerns over the impact of Trump’s trade policies on the domestic and global economies have maintained steady uncertainties in the financial markets. This has pushed investors to find safety in precious metals and other safe-haven assets. 

On the other hand, Trump’s aggressive trade policies may continue to fuel the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, thus capping gold price gains. The central bank has maintained a wait-and-see approach as it remains keen on the impact of the imposed tariffs on price pressures. 

The market now awaits US CPI data slated for release on Tuesday. This follows the better-than-expected June jobs report that saw the US unemployment rate drop from 4.2% in May to 4.1% in June. 

After four months of anticipating higher levels of inflation, June’s CPI figures will place that notion to the test. Ordinarily, gold and its derivatives drop in an environment of higher interest rates as it increases the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding bullion. On Monday, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields extended recent gains to a one-month high at 4.45%.

GLD Gold ETF technical analysis

GLD ETF stock chart | Source: TradingView

Since late April when Gold price rallied to its record high, GLD gold ETF has been range-bound. For about three months, it has been on consolidation mode between the psychologically crucial zone of $300 and the resistance level of $315.

With the bulls having successfully defended the support at $3,300, the GLD gold ETF continues to trade above the 25 and 50-day EMAs. In the ensuing sessions, the tighter range of between $303 and $312 will be worth watching.