XRP ETF approval delayed, focus shifts to October deadlines

XRP is once again at the centre of attention as the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) extends the review of several exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications tied to Ripple’s token.

Major asset managers including Bitwise, CoinShares, 21Shares, Grayscale, and Canary Capital are awaiting decisions, with new deadlines set between 18 and 25 October.

The delays, though frustrating for some investors, underline the regulatory body’s careful assessment of risks and market impact before giving approval.

At the same time, prediction markets and upcoming legal and regulatory decisions suggest October could become a defining month for Ripple and XRP.

SEC deadlines set between 18 and 25 October

According to Nate Geraci, President of The ETF Store, the SEC has postponed its rulings on multiple XRP ETF applications, with revised decision dates falling in mid to late October.

The regulator’s move has shifted investor attention to a concentrated period when several major industry names, including Bitwise and Grayscale, could learn the fate of their filings.

While this means the applications face temporary delays, it also suggests that the SEC is treating altcoin ETFs with the same scrutiny previously applied to Bitcoin spot ETFs.

Prediction markets point to a 78% chance of approval

Beyond the official filings, market data shows optimism building. Prediction platform Polymarket currently reflects a 78% chance of an XRP ETF receiving approval before the end of 2025.

This sentiment aligns with growing speculation that the SEC may be preparing to expand the list of approved digital asset ETFs beyond Bitcoin.

The increased odds are further supported by developments in other altcoin markets. Ethereum, for example, is being closely monitored as the SEC weighs approval of spot ETFs that include staking features.

If confirmed, this could establish a precedent for altcoin ETFs that provide additional yield opportunities, strengthening the case for XRP.

Ripple awaits decision on US national banking licence

October carries another potential milestone for Ripple, as the company expects a decision on its application for a US national banking licence.

If granted, the approval would represent a significant regulatory step, giving Ripple an expanded role in the financial services landscape.

The combination of ETF rulings and the licence decision could make October one of the most consequential months in Ripple’s history, with outcomes that may influence not only XRP but also broader market acceptance of altcoin ETFs.

Clarity act and digital asset regulation

Adding further weight to the timeline is the CLARITY Act, which has been passed by the House and now awaits Senate approval.

The proposed legislation aims to create clear pathways for digital assets to shift from being treated as securities to commodities once sufficiently decentralised.

For Ripple, which has faced years of regulatory uncertainty in the US, the act could offer a framework that brings more stability to XRP’s classification and opens the door for smoother ETF approvals in the future.