Commodity wrap: precious metals shine amid economic uncertainty, oil declines

Gold prices rose on Thursday on the back of safe-haven demand, while oil continued its dismal week so far. 

Oil prices were down due to concerns over oversupply and geopolitical uncertainties. 

On COMEX, silver prices were steady, while the three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange rose more than 1%. 

Gold rallies

On COMEX, the December gold contract was once again trading above the $3,900-per-ounce mark on Thursday. 

Gold prices edged higher, fueled by increased anticipation of further US interest rate reductions throughout the year and political instability stemming from an ongoing, contentious US government shutdown, both factors boosting demand for the precious metal.

The US dollar index recently dipped to hover near one-week lows, a level last seen on Wednesday. 

This decline follows data released on Wednesday, which indicated a decrease of 32,000 US private payrolls in September.

This figure comes after a downwardly revised decline of 3,000 jobs in August.

The US government has largely ceased operations, which could endanger thousands of federal jobs and might postpone the release of crucial economic data, such as Friday's non-farm payrolls (NFP) report.

“This week’s US government shutdown, and continued weakness in the US dollar have given the bulls yet more reason to keep hold of, and add to, their long positions,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation. 

While gold could certainly climb further, it might first require a period of consolidation or a pullback, according to Morrison.

Silver and copper

At the time of writing, the silver contract on COMEX was at $47.650 an ounce, largely unchanged from the previous close. 

Silver prices have followed gold’s rally, with prices rising more than 56% so far this year. This is more than gold’s return in 2025. 

Silver tells a similar tale as gold, appearing even more overextended to the upside when considering its daily MACD, Morrison noted.

Silver is still catching up to gold, as it has yet to reach its all-time high of $50, set in April 2011.

Currently, several factors are contributing to the support of silver prices: the US government shutdown, a weaker dollar, and the anticipation of lower US interest rates.

“Both gold and silver are displaying a resilience that has surprised many,” Morrison said.

Meanwhile, copper prices have enjoyed a merry run over the last few weeks. 

The contract on LME has remained above the psychologically crucial level of $10,000 per ton. 

At the time of writing, the copper contract on LME was at $10,493.70 per ton, up 1.1% from the previous close. 

Oil extends losses

Oil prices continued their downward trend for a fourth consecutive day on Thursday, driven by concerns of oversupply in the market.

A US government shutdown and anticipation of increased output from OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies) collectively contributed to a sense of uncertainty regarding the global economic outlook.

OPEC+ might boost oil production by as much as 500,000 barrels per day in November, a three-fold increase compared to October, as Saudi Arabia aims to regain its market share, according to a Reuters report.

“This has only added to concerns over the ongoing global demand growth slowdown, once again raising fears that the world could soon be drowning in oil,” Morrison said.

Finance ministers from the Group of Seven nations announced on Wednesday that they would implement measures to intensify pressure on Russia.

These actions will target entities that continue to increase their purchases of Russian oil and those that assist in circumventing sanctions.

The US plans to provide Ukraine with intelligence to facilitate long-range missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, according to a Wall Street Journal report. 

This intelligence aims to enable Ukraine to target refineries, pipelines, and other infrastructure, thereby depriving the Kremlin of revenue and oil, according to the WSJ.

It's worth noting that front-month WTI oil is retesting significant support at approximately $61.50, according to Trade Nation’s Morrison.