SLV ETF analysis as silver momentum continues

SLV silver price is trading within a rather tight range as the financial markets await the release of some crucial economic data delayed due to the recent US government shutdown. While the figures will offer cues on the Fed’s next move, the market now sees a rate cut during the central bank’s December meeting as unlikely. While a hawkish Fed would weigh on the precious metal, the persistent economic uncertainties will continue to support its safe-haven appeal.

SLV silver price weekly outlook

The Fed minutes from its October meeting are set for release on Wednesday, amid the heightened uncertainties over further interest rate cuts in 2025. During its last meeting, the US central bank lowered its benchmark rate to between 3.75% - 4%. 

At the point of that decision, the market had fully priced in another rate reduction of 25 basis points during the central bank’s December meeting. However, Jerome Powell’s remarks that further policy easing before the end of the year is “not a foregone conclusion” tapered market expectations. 

Notably, the uncertainties were largely due to the prolonged US government shutdown. In addition to the pausing of government services, investors flew blind in the absence of crucial inflation and jobs data. 

While the 43-day shutdown has come to an end, the Fed will likely not have a complete picture of the state of the country’s economic health by the time of its next meeting. This realization had silver price drop from the two-month high it hit in the past week. Similar to other precious metals, the asset thrives in an environment of lower interest rates.  

Nonetheless, the white metal has found support in the persistent economic uncertainties and the expected release of crucial data. On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release September’s nonfarm payroll. Signs of a slowing labor market may weigh on the US dollar while bolstering silver price.   

Besides, concerns over AI tech stock valuations have sustained the precious metal’s safe haven appeal. While the industry’s fundamentals remain solid, fear continues to impact the market sentiment. In fact, the fear & greed index is still on an extreme fear level of 22. This is a decline from a fear level of 29 a week ago. 

SLV silver price technical analysis

The SLV silver ETF, which tracks the performance of the silver bullion, began the new week within a rather tight range. This is as the market awaits crucial economic data that will offer cues on the Fed’s next move. 

A look at its daily chart shows the price holding steady above the 25-day EMA, which coincides with the middle Bollinger band at $44.61. In the short term, that support level will be worth watching. On the upside, SLV silver price will likely face resistance at $47 before the bulls attract enough buyers to push it higher to the upper Bollinger band at $48. For as long as the price remains above the previous bullish trendline highlighted in blue, this thesis will remain valid.