Platinum price analysis: will the rally continue?

In mid-October, platinum price rallied to a level last hit 15 years ago as exceptional market conditions bolstered the metal’s physical demand and investment appeal. Even with the corrective pullback, structural scarcity is still a key factor as supply reacts rather slowly to the easing prices. 

Additionally, extreme fear in the broader financial market has cemented the precious metal’s safe haven appeal. However, a stronger US dollar has curbed its upside potential, a dance that could sustain it within a tight range in the short term.

Platinum price to find support in steady fundamentals

In its Q3 report, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) highlighted a supply deficit for the third consecutive quarter. Notably, a surge in jewelry and automotive demand has contributed to the supply tightness observed in 2025. Besides, spillage from gold’s historic rally led to a 47% growth YoY in platinum bar and coin investment.

As part of its forecast, WPIC expects a more balanced market in 2026, comprising a slight surplus. However, this will depend on the stability of the global trade. Lower tariffs and trade wars are expected to ease the supply tightness, an aspect that could reflect on platinum prices.  

On the demand side, WPIC forecasts a 7% jewelry demand growth in 2025. Notably, the forecast 2.157 million ounces is the highest since 2018. The Indian wedding season and shifting consumer habits, especially in China, have contributed to this surge in demand. Besides, more consumers are rushing for platinum’s price advantage over gold and other precious metals. 

In the automotive sector, increasing sales of electric vehicles are set to yield a 3% fall in demand. However, the metal’s demand for this sector remains about 10% above its 5-year average. At the same time, its industrial demand is expected to decline by 22% in 2025 after record consumption from the glass sector in 2024. 

In addition to the expectation of a balanced market in the coming year, a stronger US dollar is also weighing on platinum price. Bets on a hawkish Fed during its December meeting are weighing on precious metals. Besides, a strong Nvidia Q3 earnings report helped ease concerns of an AI bubble. 

However, economic uncertainties have cemented platinum’s safe-haven appeal. At the time of writing, the fear & greed index was at an extreme fear level of 7 compared to the previous session’s 14.   

Platinum price technical analysis

XPU price chart | Source: TradingView

Platinum price edged higher on Friday, reaching a high of $1,668 for the first time in a month. Notably, that has been a steady support for about two months. However, a stronger US dollar and expectations of a more balanced market into 2026 are weighing on the asset. 

At its current level, platinum price is hovering along the lower Bollinger band. It has remained above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. It also moved above the Ichimoku cloud indicator, a sign that bulls remain in control. Top oscillators have continued rising this year. Therefore, the most likely platinum price is bullish, with the next point to watch being at $1,745, it highest point this year.