Lilly stock falls as Foundayo trails Novo’s Wegovy in early uptake

Shares of Eli Lilly came under pressure on Friday after early prescription data for its newly launched weight-loss pill suggested a slower rollout compared with rival Novo Nordisk’s competing product.

According to data from healthcare analytics firm IQVIA, Lilly’s Foundayo recorded 3,707 prescriptions in the US during its second week on the market, up from 1,390 in its debut week, which covered only two days.

While the increase points to early traction, the figures lag behind Novo’s oral Wegovy, which logged 18,410 prescriptions in its first full week and 3,071 in the first four days after launch.

The muted uptake weighed on investor sentiment, with Lilly shares falling about 4% on the day, while Novo’s US-listed shares rose roughly 6%.

Early data highlights slower ramp for Foundayo

Analysts said the early prescription data reflect a slower ramp for Foundayo relative to Wegovy, though not entirely unexpected.

JP Morgan analyst Chris Schott noted that Novo’s advantage as a first mover in both injectable and oral weight-loss drugs has given it a head start in building market presence.

Wegovy’s oral version has been available in the US since early January, following regulatory approval in late December.

Brand recognition has also played a role. Bernstein analyst Courtney Breen pointed out that online searches for GLP-1 drugs peaked around the time of Wegovy’s launch, potentially boosting early demand.

Deutsche Bank analyst James Shin said analysts would have preferred to see stronger early momentum.

He noted that prescriptions closer to 8,000 in the second week would have better maintained parity with Wegovy’s launch trajectory.

Truist analyst Srikripa Devarakonda described Foundayo’s prescription levels as "modest," while RBC Capital Markets analyst Trung Huynh said the data was "likely to be received negatively," even though "comparison early into launch should be considered immaterial."

Competitive dynamics and product differences

The rollout of Foundayo is being closely watched as a test of whether Lilly can gain share in the rapidly growing oral obesity drug market, where Novo currently holds a first-mover advantage.

Both Foundayo and Wegovy belong to the GLP-1 class of drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate appetite and blood sugar.

However, the two treatments differ in composition and administration.

Wegovy contains semaglutide, the same active ingredient used in Novo’s injectable therapies.

Foundayo, by contrast, uses a synthetic compound called orforglorpin designed to target the same receptor.

One potential advantage for Foundayo lies in its dosing flexibility.

Unlike oral Wegovy, which must be taken on an empty stomach with a waiting period before eating, Lilly’s pill does not carry the same restrictions, a factor analysts say could support adoption over time.

Jamey Millar, Novo’s executive vice president of US operations, said in a Barron's report that there has been no head-to-head trial comparing the two oral drugs.

However, a clinical trial in patients with Type 2 diabetes showed Lilly’s pill delivered stronger reductions in blood sugar and weight, though it had lower patient retention.

Investors focus on longer-term trends

Despite the early data, analysts cautioned against drawing firm conclusions at this stage of the launch. Huynh said that weeks eight through 12 would be more meaningful indicators of commercial success.

Lilly has also noted that initial prescription figures may not fully capture all distribution channels, as the drug’s rollout continues to expand across retail pharmacies and telehealth platforms.

Foundayo received US approval on April 1, with prescriptions initially processed through LillyDirect.

Shipping began on April 6, followed by broader availability starting April 9.

The stock reaction reflects investor sensitivity to early signals in what is expected to be a highly competitive and lucrative market.

Both Lilly and Novo shares remain under pressure this year, with Lilly down 18% and Novo declining 20%, even as the broader S&P 500 has gained about 4.5%.