Analysts think this $13 EV stock could outpace Tesla in 2026

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) remains the biggest name in electric vehicles, but Rivian stock NASDAQ:RIVN is increasingly drawing Wall Street attention.

Rivian shares have fallen roughly 30% this year and recently traded near $13.35, a steep decline that has left the EV maker trading at a far lower valuation than Tesla despite growing optimism around its upcoming R2 launch.

That is exactly why some analysts are paying attention as Rivian is smaller, riskier and still deeply unprofitable.

But it also has a major product launch approaching, fresh commercial validation from Uber and a valuation that looks modest next to Tesla’s.

Rivian’s make-or-break moment

For Rivian, the entire 2026 bull case comes down to one vehicle: the R2.

The midsize electric SUV is supposed to move Rivian beyond its expensive R1T pickup and R1S SUV and into a broader, more competitive market.

The company has already started production of saleable R2 vehicles and made first deliveries to employees, with customer deliveries expected soon.

That matters because Rivian’s next phase is no longer about proving it can build desirable EVs. It is about proving it can build them at scale.

Pricing is one wrinkle investors cannot ignore as Rivian’s long-promised lower-cost R2 story has become a little more complicated.

The first 2026 versions are not exactly cheap, as the R2 Premium starts at $55,485, while the Performance Launch edition starts at $59,485, including destination.

The cheaper Standard model, at $49,985, is not expected until 2027.

Still, Wall Street is focused on the growth curve. Rivian has reaffirmed 2026 delivery guidance of 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles, a major step up from 2025 levels, with the R2 expected to do much of the heavy lifting.

CEO RJ Scaringe framed the start of saleable R2 production as a major milestone, saying employee deliveries have begun and customer deliveries are expected this spring.

There is also the Uber kicker as in March, Uber agreed to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian through 2031 and expects to buy 10,000 autonomous R2 robotaxis, with an option for up to 40,000 more beginning in 2030.

That does not solve Rivian’s near-term losses, but it gives the R2 story a real commercial customer beyond retail buyers.

Valuation gap makes Rivian interesting

Analysts are not saying Rivian is about to replace Tesla as the leader in electric vehicles. Tesla remains the bigger company, the stronger brand and the more proven business.

The argument is about the stock.

Tesla already trades like a company with several future businesses priced in.

Investors are not just paying for EV sales, but also for software, robotaxis, batteries and robotics. That gives Tesla plenty of long-term appeal, but it also raises the bar for upside.

Rivian is in a very different position. The stock has been beaten down, the company is still losing money, and investors remain unsure whether it can scale production profitably.

As per analysts, the skepticism is real, but it is also why the stock may have more room to rebound if the next phase goes well.

The R2 launch is central to that case. If Rivian can deliver the vehicle on schedule, reach a broader customer base and show progress on costs, analysts believe the market may start valuing the company differently.

Wall Street’s view is still cautious, not euphoric. Benchmark’s Mickey Legg has a bullish $25 price target on Rivian, while DA Davidson’s Michael Shlisky is more restrained with a $15 target.

The gap shows how much it depends on execution, as Rivian has upside, but it has not earned the same level of confidence Tesla enjoys.

Tesla also has risks of its own, including regulatory scrutiny around its Full Self-Driving system.

Still, the core point is not that Rivian is a better business than Tesla.

It is that Rivian’s lower valuation and beaten-down share price could make it the higher-upside stock in 2026 if the R2 launch delivers and losses begin to narrow.