Take-Two stock falls as weak FY27 guidance offsets GTA VI hype

Shares of Take-Two Interactive Software TTWO fell on Friday despite the video game publisher reporting better-than-expected quarterly results and reaffirming the release timeline for the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI.

The company posted stronger-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter net bookings and a narrower loss than analysts anticipated.

However, investor sentiment weakened after Take-Two issued fiscal 2027 net bookings guidance below Wall Street expectations.

Take-Two shares were down more than 4% during Friday trading after initially rising in premarket.

The company reported a net loss of $59.5 million, or 32 cents per share, compared with analyst expectations for a loss of 57 cents per share, according to FactSet.

Net bookings reached $1.58 billion, ahead of consensus estimates of $1.55 billion.

“The quarter was outstanding. The entire fiscal year was outstanding,” Chief Executive Strauss Zelnick told Barron’s.

Fiscal 2027 guidance disappoints investors

Despite the quarterly beat, investors focused heavily on Take-Two’s outlook for fiscal 2027.

The company forecast net bookings between $8 billion and $8.2 billion for the fiscal year ending March 2027, below Wall Street expectations of approximately $9.13 billion.

Zelnick pushed back on concerns regarding the lower guidance.

“We have nothing to do with consensus. This is the first information that we're providing to the Street,” he told Barron’s.

“More often than not, we do tend to exceed our guidance. We certainly try to outperform expectations,” he added. “However, initial guidance is intended to be as we see the future. And look, it represents an extraordinary year with record numbers.”

Several analysts said the company’s guidance appeared intentionally conservative, particularly given Take-Two’s historical approach ahead of major game launches.

Wedbush analysts wrote that the forecast was “intentional conservatism consistent with Take-Two’s historical floor-guidance pattern in major launch years.”

The brokerage maintained its Outperform rating and $300 price target on the stock.

Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Cost also noted the company’s long history of conservative forecasting while maintaining an Overweight rating and a $280 target price.

GTA 6 remains central to investor focus

Much of investor attention remains centered on Grand Theft Auto VI, one of the most anticipated entertainment launches in recent years.

Take-Two reaffirmed that the game remains on track for release on Nov. 19, 2026.

The title was originally expected to launch earlier, but has faced multiple delays.

Analysts continue to project enormous sales potential for the franchise.

Morgan Stanley estimated the game could sell roughly 40 million units during fiscal 2027, while Wolfe Research suggested Take-Two’s guidance implies sales closer to 31 million to 35 million copies, depending on pricing assumptions. 

UBS analyst Christopher Schoell said investor surveys indicate “significant pent-up demand” for the game.

“We continue to believe the title will be even bigger than 'GTA 5' 10+ years ago,” Schoell wrote.

Questions also emerged this week after a leaked Best Buy affiliate email referenced possible GTA VI preorders between May 18 and May 21. The preorders never materialized.

When asked about the leak, Zelnick said: “We have absolutely no idea.”

“Rockstar plans on marketing for Grand Theft Auto VI in the summertime, and we're super excited about that,” he added.

Existing franchises continue supporting performance

Take-Two credited much of its quarterly outperformance to continued engagement across existing franchises, including Grand Theft Auto, Red Dead Redemption, and NBA 2K.

The company also highlighted strength in recurrent consumer spending, particularly within its mobile gaming business through Zynga.

Wedbush said recurring revenue streams remain a key support for the company’s long-term outlook.

“The stock trades at just 23x consensus FY:28 EPS, which, in our view, does not incorporate the scale of the GTA VI launch and the growing mix of high-margin recurring revenue,” the firm wrote.

Analysts also noted that enthusiasm around GTA VI continues to overshadow near-term concerns around bookings guidance, with many investors focused primarily on whether the company can successfully deliver the blockbuster launch next year.