Brent crude near $100: is the US-Iran ceasefire falling apart?

Brent crude jumped sharply on Monday as fresh Israeli strikes threatened to break a fragile Iran-US ceasefire and pushed oil markets back toward the $100-a-barrel mark.

The global benchmark rose as much as 4.4% intraday to about $97.15 a barrel on June 8, while West Texas Intermediate climbed above $94.

The move followed several rounds of Iranian missile fire at Israel and retaliatory Israeli strikes on military targets in western and central Iran.

US President Donald Trump was briefed on the escalation, which traders saw as another warning that the region’s short-lived calm may be giving way to a broader energy shock.

Missiles and markets push Brent towards $100

The latest price spike was not a routine risk-premium move.

It came after Iran launched its first missile attack on Israel since the ceasefire began, raising doubts over whether the truce can hold.

Israel responded with strikes on targets in western and central Iran, adding another layer of uncertainty to a market already short of spare confidence.

For oil traders, the key issue is not only the exchange of fire, but whether it derails the diplomatic push to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent’s move towards $100 matters as a print above that level would signal that markets are no longer pricing a quick return to normal Gulf flows.

The developments are expected to increase pressure on import-heavy economies already facing higher transport, fuel and input costs.

The rally also came despite softer demand signals elsewhere.

Chinese crude imports have fallen to their lowest level in roughly a decade, offering a demand-side drag that would normally cap prices.

But in the current market, supply anxiety is doing most of the work.

The Hormuz chokehold tightens

The Strait of Hormuz remains the centre of the oil market’s anxiety.

The waterway, through which around a fifth of global oil trade normally moves, has been effectively shut since late February, disrupting flows from one of the world’s most important energy corridors.

Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG Markets, said the “prospects for any near-term resolution to the Iran conflict or a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain dim.”

That view captures the market’s central problem: even if prices retreat on hopeful comments from Washington, the physical disruption has not gone away.

OPEC hikes supply, but can it move the needle?

OPEC+ is trying to mitigate the supply shock as the group approved an 188,000 barrels-per-day increase in July output quotas, its fourth consecutive monthly hike since the Hormuz disruption began.

The problem is that higher quotas do not automatically translate into barrels reaching the market. If Gulf exports remain constrained, the headline increase may offer only limited relief.

Barclays has warned that Brent could hit $100 a barrel as the market grapples with supply fears and a deteriorating security backdrop.

Goldman Sachs’ Daan Struyven has also flagged upside risks, with an extended disruption capable of pushing prices above $100 in a tail scenario, even as the bank’s base case has pointed to a Brent peak closer to $90.

JPMorgan’s Natasha Kaneva has taken a more cautious macro view, warning that sustained high prices could re-ignite inflation pressures and reverse some of the disinflation progress central banks have been relying on.