SpaceX IPO: why 4x oversubscription may not guarantee a strong debut

SpaceX is heading into its Nasdaq debut with the kind of demand most companies can only dream of.

The Elon Musk-led company has reportedly drawn about $250 billion of investor orders for a $75 billion IPO, making it the largest public listing ever attempted.

On paper, that looks like a blockbuster setup, but strong demand in the order book does not automatically mean a strong first day of trading.

With pricing expected on Thursday and trading due to begin Friday, the SpaceX IPO now faces the risk that much of the hype has already been priced in.

The $250 billion book has a catch

The headline demand number is impressive, but it needs context.

SpaceX has taken an unusual route by setting a fixed IPO price of $135 a share.

In a traditional IPO, heavy demand can allow bankers to lift the price range before the deal is finalised, and that gives the company more money and resets expectations before the first trade.

This time, the deal is being marketed around a fixed price. That means extra demand mainly decides who gets shares, not what they pay.

There is another wrinkle, as institutions often ask for far more stock than they expect to receive in popular IPOs.

A fund that wants $100 million of shares may put in for several times that amount because it assumes the allocation will be cut back.

That does not make the demand fake, but it does mean a $250 billion book is not the same as $250 billion of guaranteed buying once the stock starts trading.

The oversubscription figure shows interest, but does not guarantee follow-through.

Also read- How to Buy SpaceX Stock in 2026: Before and After the IPO

SpaceX IPO: Grey market is telling a different story

The most interesting signal may be coming from outside the IPO book.

On Hyperliquid, a crypto derivatives platform, the SPCX perpetual futures contract has become the closest thing to a live market price for SpaceX before the listing.

CoinDesk reported that the contract fell 27% over three weeks, dropping from about $216 in mid-May to around $157 by June 10.

That still leaves the synthetic price above the $135 IPO level. But the implied first-day premium has narrowed sharply.

In May, traders were effectively pricing SpaceX about 60% above the offer price. By Wednesday, that premium was closer to 16%.

There are important caveats. Hyperliquid is not Nasdaq, and the contract is a leveraged, round-the-clock crypto-market instrument that can be swayed by broader moves in digital assets.

It is also a synthetic instrument, not an actual SpaceX share.

Still, it matters because it is one of the few places where traders are putting real money behind a view before the IPO.

Wall Street is split

SpaceX’s valuation has also drawn unusually sharp criticism before the stock has even been listed.

Jim Chanos, the short seller best known for his Enron call, told Reuters that SpaceX is “not worth” $1.8 trillion based on reasonable assumptions over the next five years.

He also described the offering as a “hopes-and-dreams IPO,” pointing to a valuation of roughly 90 times sales, compared with about 14 times for Tesla.

Steve Eisman has also sounded cautious.

In comments reported by Business Insider, Eisman said his concern is less about space and more about the company’s expanding AI ambitions.

“It’s not even space that’s so hard. It’s the AI,” he said, while flagging the surge in capital spending from 42% of revenue in 2023 to 215% in the first quarter of 2026.

The bull case is just as forceful. New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu initiated coverage on SpaceX with a $165 target, according to Stocktwits coverage.

That implies upside from the $135 IPO price. His more optimistic scenario puts the stock at $330 if SpaceX can execute across Starlink, launch services, and AI-related infrastructure.