PrimeXBT: copper at records, gold plunging; why metals stopped trading as one market

By Jonatan Randin, Senior Market Analyst, PrimeXBT

For two years, you could buy almost anything in the metals complex and do well. Gold, silver, copper, even the unloved platinum group, all of it climbed.

That trade is finished. Copper is sitting within reach of an all-time high, while gold has dropped clean through its 200-day moving average for the first time since 2023.

Same complex, opposite directions. The dividing line comes down mostly to one thing: supply.

Gold: the trend has cracked, but the bid hasn't left

Gold printed record highs early in 2026, then handed a chunk back. It slipped to around $4,075 in early June, its weakest since March, and now trades near $4,320, below both its 200-day moving average around $4,450 and its 50-day near $4,620.

That 200-day line has been held as support for over two years. Once price loses it, the same average tends to flip into resistance, which is exactly the hurdle bulls now face overhead.

The cause was never really gold. Two shocks reset rate-cut expectations early in the year: the surprise nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair in late January, which markets read as hawkish, and the US-Iran conflict that erupted in late February, which drove oil above $100 and, oddly for a safe haven, sent buyers into the dollar rather than bullion.

The mood softened in mid-June, when news of a peace deal between the two sides sent gold and silver up more than 3% in a session as oil fell.

That bounce should be treated with caution, as the truce is fragile and has already been tested, but it shows how fast the macro can flip.

The other swing factor is the Fed: with headline inflation still running above 4% and Warsh signalling a less dovish path, the rate cuts the market once banked on are no longer a given, and gold tends to feel that first.

From here, reclaiming the 200-day would mark the drop as a shakeout. Fail there, and the demand zone on the chart sits near $3,900 to $3,975.

The longer-term case is intact either way: central banks are still absorbing roughly 800 tonnes a year, and several major banks see gold recovering toward $5,200 to $6,000 by year-end.

Silver: the blow-off top and the aftermath

Silver's chart is the dramatic one. It ran more than 140% in 2025, spiked above $120 in late January for a record, then nearly halved when the exchange hiked margins and leveraged longs were forced out.

It has ground sideways since and now sits right on support around $69 to $70, with the 50-day near $75 overhead and firmer resistance up at $81 to $84.

This is silver's split personality on show. It trades like gold when people are frightened and like copper when factories are busy, which makes it the more volatile cousin of both.

Supply is genuinely tight, in deficit for a sixth straight year, with solar, electronics, and AI hardware keeping demand firm.

A weekly close back above that upper band would revive the bull case; losing the floor opens a deeper pullback.

One quieter tell: the gold-to-silver ratio has slipped toward 62 from the mid-60s, meaning silver has quietly outperformed gold even through the chop.

Copper: the supply-and-tariff trade

Copper is where the bullish case is cleanest. It gained about 42% in 2025, its best year since 2009, and pushed to a record high near $6.70 a pound on COMEX in May.

It is still trading around $6.50, far above a rising 200-day moving average near $5.62, which is about as clean an uptrend as you will find in the complex right now.

Two things hold it up. First, a real supply shortfall, with analysts forecasting a deficit of several hundred thousand tonnes this year. Second, US trade policy.

Washington has imposed 50% tariffs on semi-finished copper products and derivatives since 2025, but left refined copper out, and that gap is the unresolved question.

A Commerce Department review of the US copper market, due by 30 June 2026, will inform whether a universal duty on refined copper gets phased in, 15% from 2027 and 30% from 2028.

The prospect has already pushed traders to funnel metal into US warehouses ahead of a decision, draining supply elsewhere.

Strip out the policy noise and the structural story (electrification, grid build-out, AI data centres) still says not enough copper, too much demand.

Platinum and palladium: same family, opposite paths

Platinum climbed around 127% last year and faces a fourth straight supply deficit, helped by hydrogen demand and buyers trading down from costly gold.

Most 2026 forecasts land between $1,800 and $2,450. Palladium is the mirror image: roughly 85% of its demand comes from petrol-car catalytic converters, and every electric vehicle sold eats into that.

Analysts increasingly see surplus ahead, with prices capped between $950 and $1,500. The wildcard is fresh Russian sanctions, which could force a spike.

What actually separates them

Supply deficits are holding up copper, platinum, and silver. Trade policy is reshaping copper, with the refined-copper question still open. The dollar, hostage to the Fed and the Middle East truce, is the swing factor for gold.

For anyone treating metals as one block, that is the habit to drop. The metals with a real scarcity story are keeping their gains; palladium, leaning on yesterday's petrol-engine demand, is the clear exception.

The two things most likely to move the board are the Fed's path on rates and Washington's pending decision on refined-copper tariffs. Those are likely to be more important to watch closely than any single price.

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About PrimeXBT

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