FIFA World Cup 2026: Analysts see Robinhood, Adidas and Shake Shack as early winners

The FIFA World Cup has entered its third week, with packed stadiums, soaring television audiences, and fans closely following every twist in the tournament.

But while the football has dominated headlines, equity analysts have been studying another competition unfolding off the pitch: which listed companies stand to benefit most from the world's biggest sporting event.

Based on early indicators, analysts have pointed to stronger-than-expected trading volumes at Robinhood Markets, increased customer traffic at SHAK restaurants located near World Cup venues, and accelerating apparel sales at Adidas.

Robinhood's prediction markets gain momentum

Robinhood has emerged as one of the biggest corporate beneficiaries of the FIFA World Cup, with analysts pointing to a sharp jump in activity on its fast-growing prediction markets business.

Much of the company's strong June performance has been driven by trading in event contracts linked to the tournament.

Robinhood routes these contracts through Rothera, its CFTC-licensed exchange and clearing house, allowing it to retain the full economics of trades rather than sharing revenue with third-party exchanges.

Truist Securities said trading volumes in Robinhood's prediction markets accelerated sharply over the past week and are now tracking nearly 40% above the brokerage's second-quarter forecasts.

The firm said the World Cup is likely to provide an even bigger revenue boost than implied by higher volumes because the activity is occurring on Robinhood's proprietary exchange.

The brokerage said Robinhood is on course for its strongest June on record across equities, options, and prediction markets, describing the performance as a "hat trick, unassisted by crypto."

The optimism has been echoed across Wall Street.

Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its price target on Robinhood to $121 from $108 while maintaining a Buy rating, citing record trading activity during June.

The stock currently trades at $101.83.

Analyst James Yaro said preliminary data pointed to record volumes in event contracts, options and equities, alongside a sharp increase in cryptocurrency trading, reinforcing the view that Robinhood's expanding product suite and rising retail participation are driving growth across multiple asset classes.

The new target implies roughly 23% upside from Friday's closing price of $98.

The upgrade came shortly after BTIG initiated coverage of Robinhood with a Buy rating and a $125 price target.

Analyst Andrew Harte said the company had evolved well beyond its commission-free trading roots into a diversified platform spanning cryptocurrencies, prediction markets and wealth management, adding that it was well positioned to compound assets at more than 20% annually over the next decade through product expansion, demographic tailwinds and international growth.

Earlier this month, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani wrote that prediction markets were likely to become Robinhood's largest incremental revenue driver this year, helping lift the company's shares by 7%.

The analysts estimated that prediction market revenue could surge 286% this year to $586 million.

"We believe as we head deeper into the World Cup, we can expect Robinhood to gain share," Chhugani wrote, adding that interest surrounding the upcoming US midterm elections and growing institutional participation in prediction markets should provide additional momentum.

Shake Shack eyes a World Cup traffic boost

Restaurant chain Shake Shack is also expected to receive a modest boost from the tournament.

Analysts at DA Davidson said more than 35% of the company's US-owned restaurants are located within a 30-mile radius of World Cup venues, positioning the chain to benefit from higher footfall as fans gather around host cities.

News reports from several tournament locations have already pointed to increased spending at restaurants and bars, supporting expectations that same-store sales could finish near the upper end of the company's updated guidance issued earlier this month.

"The guidance reset appears all the wiser given our lower World Cup lift estimate vs mgmt's initial implied assumption," DA Davidson analysts wrote.

They added that stronger execution under new Chief Financial Officer Michelle Hook could help restore investor confidence.

"As a result, we are increasingly confident that new CFO Michelle Hook's oversight & target-setting discipline will help SHAK regain investor credibility and potentially exit the penalty box as soon as its next earnings release."

The brokerage reiterated its Buy rating on Shake Shack with a $70 price target, representing nearly 30% upside from the stock's previous close of $54.79.

Adidas pulls ahead in the battle with Nike

The World Cup also appears to be widening the gap between Adidas and Nike, according to early retail and consumer spending data.

Jefferies expects Adidas to continue generating World Cup-related sales momentum throughout the second quarter, with an even stronger contribution expected in the second half of the year.

As an official tournament sponsor, Adidas supplies the official match ball and sponsors 14 national teams.

Nike outfits 12 teams while supporting the tournament through merchandise launches and collaborations across more than 5,000 stores worldwide.

Although both companies are benefiting from football-related demand, analysts believe Adidas has gained the stronger advantage.

Drake MacFarlane, research analyst at M Science, said Adidas was benefiting "to a greater degree thus far."

Consumer spending data showed purchases of Adidas apparel climbed 70% year over year in May and remained elevated through June, largely driven by jersey demand ahead of the tournament.

Nike's apparel business has also expanded, but MacFarlane said the company was being outpaced because Adidas currently has "the right set of products for the consumer."

Foot traffic trends reinforce that view.

According to Placer.ai data shared with Reuters, visits to Adidas stores in the United States jumped 47% during the tournament's opening week compared with average 2026 levels.

Nike's factory outlet stores recorded an 11% increase over the same period.

Compared with last year, Adidas posted a 16% increase in store visits, while Nike experienced a decline.

Although the Nike figures only reflect outlet locations, Placer.ai Director of Research Elizabeth Lafontaine said the data still suggested Adidas "has been top of mind for shoppers and may have done a good job in its store activation around the event."

Adidas generated 250 million euros of World Cup-related revenue during the first quarter alone.

Jefferies expects the tournament's commercial impact to extend beyond traditional football merchandise, arguing that World Cup-inspired lifestyle collections are resonating strongly with female consumers.

"The halo effect should extend beyond football fans as WC-inspired lifestyle ranges seem to resonate strongly with female consumers," the brokerage said while reiterating its Buy rating and 190-euro price target on the stock.