Intel stock crashes over 5% today: is there any upside left after 200% rally?

Intel shares INTC fell around 5% on Thursday as semiconductor stocks extended their pullback, even as analysts at HSBC raised their price target on the chipmaker.

The decline came amid a broader selloff across the semiconductor sector.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF dropped 3%, with chip-equipment makers Teradyne and KLA each falling about 8%.

Nvidia shares declined 1.2%, while Micron Technology lost 3.4%.

Semiconductor rally pauses after record first half

The weakness follows a remarkable first half for semiconductor stocks.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF gained more than 70% during the first six months of 2026, marking the strongest first-half performance since the fund's launch in 2000.

Following that historic rally, investors have increasingly been taking profits across the sector, leading to a pullback in many of the industry's biggest winners.

Despite Thursday's decline, Intel remains one of the standout performers in the semiconductor space this year.

The stock is still up more than 200% year to date, reflecting growing investor optimism around the company's role in the next phase of artificial intelligence infrastructure spending.

HSBC sees more upside in server CPUs

HSBC raised its price target on the stock to $200 from $100 while maintaining a Buy rating.

The new target represents the highest price objective currently on Wall Street for the shares.

HSBC analyst Frank Lee said the firm sees increasing upside from Intel's server processor business as demand for data-center infrastructure continues to grow.

“Intel is well positioned to deliver upside to 2026/27 server CPU shipments, driven by internal foundry capacity reallocation,” Lee wrote in a note to clients.

The analyst said HSBC raised its estimate for 2026 server CPU shipment growth to 25% year over year from 20%, resulting in a projected $24.1 billion in data center and AI revenue, roughly 4% above consensus estimates.

Lee added that Wall Street may still be underestimating Intel's longer-term growth potential despite recent upward revisions to forecasts.

For 2027, HSBC increased its server CPU shipment growth estimate to 30% from 20%, citing expanding manufacturing capacity and the continued rollout of Intel's 18A process technology.

The firm now forecasts Intel's 2027 data center and AI revenue at $33 billion, approximately 20% above consensus expectations.

Foundry business gains credibility

HSBC also pointed to improving prospects for Intel Foundry, which it now includes in its valuation model.

According to Lee, capacity constraints across the semiconductor industry are encouraging customers to explore alternatives to existing suppliers.

“With TSMC’s additional 3nm capacity coming online only in 2H27, customers are exploring new foundry partners,” Lee wrote.

The analyst said Intel has emerged as a potential beneficiary, citing customer wins with Terafab and Apple and ongoing engagement with Google and Nvidia.

Lee also highlighted Intel's Embedded Multi-die Interconnect Bridge, or EMIB, packaging technology as a potential competitive advantage.

According to HSBC, packaging capacity remains a bottleneck across the industry, and Intel's EMIB solution offers greater scalability than some competing technologies.

The firm expects increasing external customer commitments beginning in the second half of 2026 as foundry demand expands.