SoftBank stock surges: is OpenAI loan the next big AI catalyst?

SoftBank Group stock rose on Thursday after a report said the Japanese investor had revived talks for a $10 billion loan backed by its OpenAI stake.

The development gave markets another reason to bet on Masayoshi Son’s artificial intelligence push.

The stock climbed 2.3% to ¥6,137, outperforming a 0.5% rise in the Nikkei 225.

Why the OpenAI loan talks came back to life

The deal is not just another borrowing plan. It is a test of how much value banks are willing to assign to one of the world’s most closely watched private AI companies.

SoftBank has reopened talks with lenders for a $10 billion margin loan secured against its OpenAI stake.

A margin loan is a borrowing backed by financial assets.

In this case, the asset is not a listed share such as Arm, but stock in privately held OpenAI, which is harder for banks to value and much harder to sell quickly if something goes wrong.

That was the original sticking point, as banks were reluctant to accept OpenAI shares as the only collateral because they would have had no broader claim on SoftBank if the value of those shares fell short.

SoftBank is now offering a corporate guarantee, meaning lenders could seek repayment from SoftBank itself if the pledged OpenAI stake is not enough.

The lending group is expected to include Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Mizuho Financial Group.

The revived talks follow an earlier attempt that was scaled back after lender resistance, with Bloomberg News previously reporting that SoftBank had cut its target from $10 billion to about $6 billion.

SoftBank's bigger bet

For investors, the loan matters because it shows how aggressively Son is trying to keep SoftBank at the centre of the AI trade.

SoftBank has committed more than $60 billion to OpenAI and related AI infrastructure projects, including the Stargate data centre venture with OpenAI and Oracle.

The company has also leaned heavily on debt and asset-backed financing to fund those ambitions.

Earlier this year, SoftBank secured a $40 billion bridge loan, with the company saying the funds would support its OpenAI investment and general corporate needs.

That is the main attraction and also the worry at the same time, as if OpenAI keeps growing and eventually goes public at a strong valuation, SoftBank’s stake could become one of the most powerful assets in global tech investing.

If sentiment turns, the same exposure could become a funding pressure point.

Gil Luria, head of technology research at DA Davidson, told CNBC that SoftBank has made itself into a “highly leveraged bet on AI”, carrying both significant upside and risk.

The comment captures why the stock tends to react sharply to any OpenAI-linked financing news.

Richard Windsor, founder of Radio Free Mobile, struck the other side of the argument.

He told CNBC that SoftBank’s risk profile is getting larger, and warned that if OpenAI fails to deliver, “there could easily be a liquidity crunch at SoftBank.”