Dow futures surge 130 points today: 5 things to know before markets opens

US stock futures were mixed on Thursday as investors paused after a two-day advance and weighed whether strong earnings can keep the rally moving while semiconductor shares remain under pressure.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 131 points, or 0.08%, reversing an earlier gain. S&P 500 futures edged 0.1% lower, while Nasdaq 100 contracts fell 0.45%.

Retail sales, jobless claims and another round of results will test whether easing inflation can coexist with resilient growth and elevated equity valuations across Wall Street this morning.

5 things to know before Wall Street opens

1. TSMC’s record quarter fails to impress

TSMC posted net profit of NT$706.6 billion, up 77% from a year earlier, as revenue climbed 36% to NT$1.27 trillion.

It also lifted its 2026 revenue-growth outlook to slightly above 40% and raised planned capital spending to between $60 billion and $64 billion.

The shares fell before the bell. Investors are focusing on the cost of sustaining AI growth, including TSMC’s additional $100 billion commitment to US manufacturing, rather than simply rewarding the earnings beat.

2. The semiconductor retreat remains broad

Western Digital and Seagate fell more than 3% in premarket trading, extending a pullback across memory and hardware stocks.

The Philadelphia semiconductor index ended Wednesday about 16% below its June 22 record.

The weakness suggests capital is rotating towards megacap platforms and financial shares. It also shows why strong chip results may struggle to satisfy a market priced for perfect execution.

3. Retail sales and jobless claims take centre stage

June retail sales and weekly unemployment claims are due at 8:30 am in Washington.

Retail spending rose 0.9% in May, so Thursday’s report will show whether consumers retained momentum as borrowing costs stayed elevated.

The releases follow a 0.3% decline in June producer prices and softer consumer inflation.

Markets have sharply reduced expectations for an imminent Fed increase, but stronger demand data could revive concerns that the economy remains too hot.

4. UnitedHealth and Netflix carry different tests

UnitedHealth reports before the bell, with investors looking for signs that medical costs and reimbursement pressures are stabilising.

Netflix reports after the close, putting engagement, advertising growth and margins in focus.

UBS investment chief Mark Haefele expects profits to remain the main driver for equities despite geopolitical setbacks.

The chip reaction shows solid results may not be enough without confident guidance.

5. Higher fuel costs hit airline sentiment

United Airlines slipped after warning that 2026 fuel expense could be almost $6 billion higher than expected at the start of the year.

The carrier still beat quarterly estimates and raised its adjusted earnings outlook, highlighting resilient demand.

Oil remains a key market wildcard. A sustained rise could squeeze transport margins, revive inflation pressure and limit the benefit Wall Street has drawn from softer price data.