Nvidia Q2 earnings tonight: analyst sees $97.8B revenue and 55% stock upside

Nvidia reports second-quarter results after the US market closes on Wednesday night with Wall Street expecting a record quarter.

The harder test is whether the chipmaker can clear a bar that several bullish analysts have pushed well above consensus.

FactSet expects revenue of about $92.3 billion and adjusted earnings of $2.09 a share.

KeyBanc analyst John Vinh is aggressive, forecasting $97.8 billion of revenue and maintaining a $330 price target, implying 55% upside from Tuesday’s close.

That means another ordinary beat may not be enough.

KeyBanc thinks Wall Street is nearly $6 billion too low

Vinh expects Nvidia to report $97.8 billion in fiscal Q2 revenue, up from his previous $93.1 billion estimate and almost $6 billion above the $92.2 billion consensus cited in his note.

“We expect NVDA to report strong results and guidance,” Vinh told investors, according to TipRanks.

His thesis increasingly depends on what happens after the July quarter.

Vinh expects fiscal Q3 revenue to reach $110 billion, compared with consensus near $104.2 billion, as Rubin-generation shipments accelerate.

“Expect ramping Rubin GPU shipments to represent key drivers of upside,” he said.

KeyBanc now expects roughly 1.9 million to 2 million Rubin processors this year, up from 1.75 million previously, helped by improving HBM4 supply from SK Hynix. It also expects 5,000 to 6,000 Vera Rubin racks this year.

KeyBanc is betting on more than another Blackwell-driven beat. Rubin is becoming central to the $330 bull case.

Other bulls are already looking towards $110 billion

Vinh is aggressive, but he is not alone, as UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri expects July-quarter revenue of roughly $94 billion to $95 billion, several billion dollars above consensus.

More importantly, he believes October-quarter revenue can reach $110 billion or more as Blackwell demand remains strong and Rubin starts contributing.

“The numbers are more important than the narrative,” Arcuri said. UBS maintains a Buy rating and $280 target.

Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis also expects a “beat and raise” quarter. He described demand indicators as “rock-solid,” pointing to accelerating cloud revenue at Microsoft and Amazon, OpenAI’s long-duration compute requirements and other AI infrastructure commitments.

That shifts the debate beyond whether Nvidia beats $92 billion.

The more consequential question is whether management guides investors towards the roughly $110 billion quarterly revenue level that KeyBanc and UBS already see coming. If it does, Wall Street may need another round of estimate upgrades.

Nvidia could beat big and still disappoint investors

The danger is that much of the expected upside is already understood.

Jefferies warned that the potential earnings upside “seems well understood,” an important qualification given Nvidia’s recent history.

Nvidia shares have fallen after each of the company’s previous four earnings releases despite estimate beats.

Investors may therefore judge Wednesday’s report less on whether Nvidia exceeds consensus and more on the size of the beat, guidance and Jensen Huang’s comments about competition.

JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur told MarketWatch that the earnings call could be as important as headline guidance, management’s views on custom AI silicon, emerging competitors and Nvidia’s ability to defend its full-stack advantage. China and HBM supply will also be watched.

Options traders are pricing an implied post-earnings move of only about 5.4%, the smallest expected Nvidia reaction since 2021.