SpaceX čeká v září zásadní katalyzátor: mohou Nasdaq fondy podnítit další rally?

Akcie SpaceX NASDAQ:SPCX čeká ve čtvrtek další zásadní test nabídky, ale investoři už se dívají za August lockup směrem k September katalyzátoru.

Dalších 319 million shares are expected to become eligible for trading on August 20, following the release of 912 million shares on August 6.

Přesto první uvolnění nezpůsobilo výprodej, kterého se mnoho investorů obávalo.

SpaceX rose 6.1% that day and nearly 16% in the following session, while shares have risen about 35% since the restrictions lifted.

The Nasdaq-100’s September quarterly rebalance is scheduled to take effect before trading begins on September 21.

Větší objem volně obchodovatelných akcií by mohl spustit další nákupy

SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 on July 7. JPMorgan estimated at the time that inclusion could attract roughly $4.3 billion in passive inflows from funds tracking the benchmark.

„Clearly, there’s a lot of demand; that’s why they fast-tracked the integration into the index,“ Morningstar strategist Michael Field told Reuters. He also warned that Morningstar considered the shares overvalued.

Další otázkou je, zda rostoucí objem volně obchodovatelných akcií SpaceX může zvýšit jeho zastoupení v indexu.

Investor Tangerine Tan Capital calculates that SpaceX currently carries about a 1.16% Nasdaq-100 weight, well below the 4% to 5% allocation he believes its market value could justify without the float constraint.

Jak se více interních akcií stane obchodovatelnými, investor očekává, že indexové fondy zvýší své držby při budoucích rebalancích.

„I am expecting a price increase around the time of the rebalancing,“ Tangerine Tan Capital wrote.

August 20 prověří, zda kupci dokážou vstřebat nabídku

The September thesis first has to survive Thursday.

About 319 million additional shares become eligible for trading, increasing the pool available to insiders and early investors.

Eligibility does not mean those holders will sell, but it creates another potential source of supply.

Research analyst Ed Elson expects “a lot of selling pressure” as early backers gain opportunities to monetise years of gains.

The August 6 unlock offered an encouraging precedent. More than 900 million shares became eligible, but SpaceX instead climbed 6.1% to $114.92. Elson suggested short sellers closing positions may have helped absorb the new supply.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas was also bullish around that event. The Associated Press reported that Jonas viewed the unlock as a buying opportunity and believed SpaceX could reach $300 by mid-2027.

Poptávka indexových fondů neřeší spor o ocenění

Any additional passive buying would not automatically make SpaceX fundamentally cheap.

The stock has remained highly volatile since its $135 IPO, climbing as high as $225.64 before falling below the offer price and subsequently recovering.

NYU professor and investor Scott Galloway told Business Insider this week that SpaceX remained “crazy overvalued,” arguing that its limited initial public float and rapid Nasdaq-100 inclusion had created unusually strong demand.