USD/NOK outlook as Norway’s inflation slips, US CPI ahead

on Mar 11, 2024
  • The USD/NOK exchange rate moved sideways after the latest Norwegian inflation report.
  • Inflation in the country rose at a slower pace than expected in February.
  • The US will publish the latest inflation report on Tuesday.

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The USD/NOK exchange rate remained in a tight range on Monday as traders reflected to the latest US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and Norway’s inflation report. The pair was trading at 10.43, a few points above last Friday’s low of 10.31.

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US inflation data ahead

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The USD to NOK pair retreated after the US released the latest US nonfarm payroll data. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), data revealed that the unemployment rate rose from 3.7% in January to 3.9% in February.

The economy added over 275k jobs in February after creating over 229k jobs in the previous month. Further, the participation rate remained at 62.5% while the average hourly earnings rose by 4.3%.

Meanwhile, another report revealed that Norway’s inflation rose 4.5% in February from the previous month’s 4.7%. The increase was lower than the median estimate of 4.9%. 

Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.4% MoM and 4.9% YoY. The two were smaller than the median estimate of 0.7% and 5.3%.

These numbers mean that the Norwegian central bank is on track to start cutting interest rates in the coming months. The bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.50% in January. It had previously hiked them from 0% in 2021. 

Looking ahead, the next important catalyst for the USD/NOK will be the upcoming US inflation report set for Tuesday. This is an important report since it forms an important part of the Federal Reserve dual-mandate.

Economists expect the data to show that the country’s inflation remained high in February. Precisely, they see it coming at 3.1%, where it was in the previous month. They also see the core CPI moving from 3.8% to 3.7%.

This report comes a few days after the Federal Reserve chair hinted that the Fed would start cutting rates in June this year. He pointed to three rate cuts this year.

USD/NOK technical analysis

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USD/NOK chart by TradingView

The USD/NOK exchange rate has moved sideways in the past few days. It formed a small hammer pattern whose lower side was at 10.31 on Friday. In most cases, this pattern is usually a sign of a bullish reversal. 

The pair remains slightly below the 50-day and 25-day moving averages while the MACD indicator has moved to the neutral point. Therefore, the pair will likely resume the downward trend as sellers target the ascending trendline that connects the lowest point since June 22nd. This target is at 10.15.


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