Intel stock price forecast: death cross nears ahead of earnings

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) stock price has collapsed recently as the focus shifts to the upcoming financial results. After soaring to the year-to-date high of $51.15, it has entered a deep bear market by collapsing by over 32% to the current $34.28.

Intel earnings preview

Intel’s share price plunge is in line with what has happened in the semiconductor industry. Popular names like Nvidia, Arm Holdings, and AMD have all plunged by double digits from their highest points this year. 

As a result, the closely watched VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SMH) have all moved into a correction phase by dropping by over 10% from their highest levels this year.

Therefore, Intel investors are hoping for good news when the company publishes its financial results on Thursday. History has not been in their side as the stock has plunged after the last three earnings reports. In January, the stock crashed by over 10% after the company published its Q4 results.

The most recent financial report showed that Intel’s revenue rose by 10% to $15.4 billion while its gross margin expanded to 45.7%. Most notably, the company moved from a net loss in Q4’22 to a $2.7 billion profit.

Intel’s business was boosted by the client computing division, whose revenue rose by 33% to $8.8 billion. Its smaller divisions like Mobileye and Intel Foundry also had strong revenue growth figures. 

However, these numbers were dragged by its data center and AI and network divisions, where revenue dropped by 10% and 24%. This is notable since other semiconductor companies are seeing strong data center growth because of the ongoing AI trend. 

Analysts expect Intel’s figures to show that its revenue rose by 8.60% to $11.9. Its EPS is expected to come in at 13 cents, an improvement from last year’s loss of 4 cents. In terms of guidance, analysts expect the company’s revenue to come in at $12.75 billion.

The key catalyst for the company will be its data center revenue figures since the company promised to launch an AI chip. 

Intel stock price forecast

INTC chart by TradingView

Turning to the daily chart, we see that the INTC share price has been in a freefall in the past few months. It has never recovered after it dropped sharply following its financial results in January.

Now, the stock has plunged below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level. Worse, it is about to form a death cross pattern, which happens when the 200-day and 50-day moving averages make a bearish crossover.

The Bulls Bears Power indicator has crashed below the neutral point. Therefore, the outlook for Intel is bearish and it could drop to $30 ahead of earnings. The alternative scenario is where it does what Tesla did as I predicted on Tuesday. In this, the stock could rebound since all the negatives have been priced in.