eVTOL stocks forecasts: Joby Aviation, Lilium, and Archer Aviation

Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) companies have made a lot of progress and incinerated billions of dollars in the past few years. All of the publicly-traded eVTOL companies like Joby Aviation (JOBY), Lilium (LILM), and Archer Aviation (ACHR) have all crashed buy double-digits from their all-time high.

eVTOL companies have made progress

eVTOL companies are hoping to change the urban transportation industry for good. With many cities seeing robust congestion, these firms believe that they can be part of the solution. 

eVTOL’s solution is that of an electric helicopter that can move people in urban centers, saving them time, and money. As a result, multiple studies have predicted that the market size for eVTOLs will jump from $12.5 billion in 2023 to over $35 billion by 2032. 

As a result, these eVTOL companies have received backing from some of the top companies in the world. Archer Aviation is backed by Stellantis, the parent company of Jeep, Dodge, Fiat, and Maserati. It is also backed by Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest and United Airlines.

Joby Aviation is backed by companies like Toyota, Baillie Gifford, Delta Air Lines, Intel,  and Uber while Lilium’s top investors are companies like Tencent, LGT, and Atomico. 

Building an eVTOL from scratch and gaining all the necessary regulatory approvals is costly and time-consuming. Fortunately, some of these firms have gone that long way and received preliminary regulatory approvals.

In November last year, Lilium received design approval from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). 

Meanwhile, in the United States, Joby Aviation has completed the third stage of the FAA certification process. It is now working with the regulators to finalize the final approval process before moving to the commercialization process. 

Archer Aviation received the final approval by the FAA, giving it the authority to start operating commercial airline. It also received authorisation to perform specialized aircraft repair services. 

These documents mean that Archer Aviation will have the two documents it needs to start air taxi services when its Midnight plane gets ready. The approval formed a basis for the recent investment in the company by Stellantis. 

The three companies have received big orders in the past few years. Lilium recently received an order of 100 jets from Saudia Group, another one from UrbanLink and 4 jets by eVolare. United Airlines has placed a $1 billion order from Archer Aviation while Joby is working with the US military.

Still, these companies face several risks ahead. They are all in an unproven industry whose future growth is based on assumptions. Also, they are - and will - continue burning cash in the next few years. Most of them will need to raise cash, a move that will dilute existing shareholders.

Archer Aviation stock price analysis

ACHR chart by TradingView

The daily chart reveals that the ACHR stock price has bounced back by over 56% after bottoming at $3 in June. It has crossed the 50% Fibonacci Retracement point and moved above the resistance point at $4.40, its lowest swing in October last year. 

Archer Aviation shares also rose above the upper side of the falling wedge chart pattern shown in green. In most cases, this pattern is one of the most popular bullish signs. It has moved above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. 

Therefore, the stock will likely continue rising as buyers target the key point at $5.47, its highest point this month. More upside will only be confirmed if it rises above that level since it will invalidate the double-top pattern.

Lilium stock price forecast

LILM chart by TradingView

Lilium’s stock price has been attempting to bounce back after falling to a low of $0.3721 in 2023 from a record high of $15 in 2021. The stock has moved to almost $1 recently and is lacking a clear direction.

It is consolidating at the 50-day moving average and is slightly above the key support level at $0.7886, its lowest point in March. The stock has formed a symmetrical triangle that is nearing its confluence level.

Therefore, while a lot can change, I believe that the Lilium share price will ultimately have a bearish breakdown and retest the support at $0.50.

Joby Aviation stock analysis

JOBY chart by TradingView

Like the other eVTOL companies, Joby Aviation’s stock retreated from $12 in 2023 to a low of $4.50 this year. It formed a symmetrical triangle and recently made a bullish breakout that saw it rise to $7.70 in July, its highest point since August last year. As it rose, it flipped the important resistance point at $6.47 (February high) into a support level.

The stock has remained above the 50-day moving average and is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement point. Like Archer Aviation, the JOBY stock will likely have a bullish breakout as buyers target the year-to-date high of $7.70. More upside will be confirmed if the stock rises above that resistance level.