Tin, copper, and not gold, lead commodity charts so far in 2025

Tin prices have been surging, and surprisingly, the returns have been better than even gold so far in 2025. 

“The first quarter is already over and, somewhat surprisingly, it is not gold but tin that leads the performance comparison of the most important commodities,” Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said in a report. 

The price of the base metal has risen 25% since the beginning of the year.

On Monday, the price had marked a new two-and-three-quarter-year high of approximately $37,100 per ton.

At the time of writing, the three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange was at $37,140 per ton, up 1.5% from the previous close. 

Production restart delays

The price was driven up by concerns that the earthquake in Myanmar could delay the restart of production in the autonomous Wa region in the country. 

The initial assumption was that the mining ban implemented in 2023 would be temporary. 

It was believed that the restrictions would be lifted in the near future, allowing mining operations in Myanmar to resume and production levels to return to normal. 

This assumption was based on the expectation that the factors that led to the ban would be resolved, and that the government would take steps to support the mining industry.

However, the reality was quite different. 

Mining ban continues

The ban remained in place, and production in Myanmar continued to decline. 

In fact, last year's production figures showed a significant drop of almost 50% compared to the previous year. 

This indicated that the impact of the ban was more severe and long-lasting than initially anticipated. 

The ongoing restrictions created uncertainty and discouraged investment in the mining sector, leading to a sustained decline in production.

The International Tin Association (ITA) has released a statement highlighting a significant deficit in the global tin supply. 

Due to a combination of factors, most notably production losses within the Democratic Republic of Congo, a key tin-producing region, the ITA estimates that the current mine supply of tin is falling short of global demand by 16%. 

This substantial shortfall has raised concerns about potential disruptions to the tin market and industries reliant on tin resources.

“Indonesia's February exports of tin more than doubled month-on-month, but at 3,900 tons, they remained well below the level of the preceding months,” Lambrecht said.

Copper 

The COMEX copper price has increased by a substantial 25% since the start of the year, despite recent losses, and is now almost equal to the price of tin.

Copper prices on the LME have also risen by approximately 10% since the start of the year.

“We see the latest price decline being caused, on the one hand, by the general increase in risk aversion in the markets and, on the other, as a ‘healthy’ correction after the almost overheated price rise of the previous weeks,” Lambrecht said. 

According to Commerzbank, positive factors influencing the copper price include improved sentiment in China's industrial and construction sectors and the decline in Chilean copper production to below 400,000 tons in February, down 5.5% from the previous year. 

Low or negative treatment charges (TC/RCs) in China also provide support. 

However, the escalating tariff dispute between Beijing and Washington could negatively impact the positive sentiment in China, the German bank said. 

At a Chinese copper smelters conference, no official second-quarter guidance was provided.

However, participants noted that concentrate supply remained tight, leading some smelters to begin maintenance work early.

Furthermore, new political protests in front of a copper mine in Peru also provide support for the copper price.

The mine affected is the country's seventh-largest, Antapaccay.

Lambrecht added: