GLD ETF analysis: What next for the top gold fund?

The GLD ETF is well in the overbought territory even after easing on Thursday’s session. Earlier in the day, the derivative hit a fresh record high at $357 before dropping slightly to $354 as at the time of writing. 

Amid the heightened uncertainties over the US government shutdown and health of the country’s economy, hefty ETF inflows continue to bolster gold price rallying. Indeed, the bullion has recorded a stellar performance this year; rising by about 47% YTD. Wednesday marked its 39th record high in 2025. Even with the looming corrective pullback, gold price will likely stabilize at historically higher levels in the medium-to-long term.

Gold price bull run is far from over 

Gold price is closing in on the $4000 mark as uncertainties and heightened volatility boost its rally. According to Goldman Sachs, the precious metal is set to reach that level by mid-2026. On Wednesday, it hit a fresh record high at $3,897 an ounce before pulling back slightly on early Thursday. This stellar performance has seen the GLD ETF, which tracks the price of the bullion, surge by close to 50% YTD. 

Entering into 2025, central bank purchases were the key driver of gold’s uptrend. While it remains a key bullish factor in the ongoing rally, individual investors have further fueled the uptrend as they seek to diversify their portfolio. As such, the precious metal’s bull run will likely continue in coming quarters. 

The easing of Fed’s monetary policy and a weaker US dollar are set to folster an environment that broadens gold’s investor base and increases their positions. That said, a corrective pullback in ripe, before prices stabilize at historically higher levels in the long term.  

Meanwhile, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will likely experience delays as the US government shutdown enters its second day. While the upheaval has sustained the GLD gold ETF above the resistance-turn-support zone of $350, the kneejerk reaction appears to ease. However, the precious metal’s safe haven appeal and increasing investor positions are set to sustain it above previously steady resistance levels.   

GLD ETF Technical Outlook

GLD ETF hit a fresh all-time high earlier on Thursday before pulling back slightly. What appeared to be the start of a corrective pullback late last week has shifted to further gains as uncertainties continue to bolster gold’s safe-haven appeal. Since the start of the week, it has held steady past the previously evasive zone of $350. With that, the gold ETF is set to record its seventh consecutive week of gains as investors focus on the US government shutdown.

A look at its daily chart highlights that the GLD ETF is ripe for a corrective pullback even as the bulls remain in control. At an RSI of 77, the derivative is deep in the overbought territory despite the latest easing.

In the immediate term, the range between $360 and the support level of $350 will be worth watching with sideways trading highly likely. A further decline may have the bears eyeing the lower support levels of $346 or the 25-day EMA at $339. Below that zone, this bullish thesis will be invalid.