XRP risks $1.05 retest as price stalls below key EMA barriers

Ripple's XRP is trading below the $1.20 mark on Friday, holding short-term support near $1.13 after an early-week rally stalled at $1.28. 

The rejection at higher levels has dampened market sentiment, prompting traders to reduce exposure amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty.

Weak investor sentiment weighs on crypto markets

Cryptocurrency markets have been under pressure following a hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve during Wednesday’s American trading session. 

Policymakers reiterated their commitment to achieving the long-term 2% inflation target, fueling expectations that tighter monetary conditions could persist longer than previously anticipated.

Market participants also reacted to comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who appeared to prioritize economic stability over premature monetary easing during his first post-meeting press conference.

His remarks revived speculation that an interest rate increase could still be possible in 2026.

The cautious stance has triggered broad-based weakness across digital assets, erasing some of the gains recorded earlier this week after the United States and Iran announced a peace agreement aimed at ending their conflict.

However, reports of Israeli missile strikes over Lebanon have raised fears of further instability in the region, particularly regarding the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy shipping route.

This has resulted in Bitcoin’s price dropping below $63,000, while XRP is now trading around the $1.13 level. 

Institutional interest in XRP continues to surge despite the bearish price action.

Spot XRP Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded an inflow of $2.4 million on Thursday after attracting approximately $3 million on Monday and $5 million on Tuesday.

The fresh inflows indicate that institutional investors are still interested in XRP amid heightened market uncertainty and weakening sentiment.

Derivatives data further underscores the cautious market environment.

XRP futures Open Interest (OI) fell to $2.59 billion on Friday from $2.66 billion the previous day, reflecting a reduction in speculative activity and overall risk appetite.

The decline suggests traders are increasingly closing positions rather than opening new bullish bets, reinforcing ongoing selling pressure and signaling reduced confidence in XRP’s short-term outlook.

XRP technical outlook remains bearish

The XRP/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish as XRP is trading around $1.13 at the time of writing, maintaining a bearish near-term structure as the token remains below its major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The coin is trading below the 50-day EMA at $1.27, the 100-day EMA at $1.37, and the 200-day EMA at $1.58.

As long as XRP remains below these indicators, bullish momentum is likely to remain limited.

However, technical indicators suggest that downside momentum may be slowing.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram on the 4-hour chart points to weakening bearish momentum rather than an acceleration of selling activity.

If the bearish trend persists, XRP could retest the $1.05 support level in the near term. 

A daily close below this level could trigger renewed selling pressure and accelerate XRP’s corrective trend.

For any meaningful recovery to develop, XRP would need to reclaim resistance at the 50-day EMA and sustain momentum above higher moving-average barriers. 

Until then, the broader outlook remains cautious as investors continue to navigate a challenging macroeconomic environment.