Weekly markets TL;DR: Tesla earnings, gold nears all-time high, important economic data to come

on Jan 25, 2023
  • Earnings season continues in stock market, with Microsoft spelling caution yesterday and Tesla to follow today
  • Gold is nearing all-time high as expectations of a pivot to higher interest rates have given the metal impetus
  • Important economic data to come later this week, including US GDP and PCE numbers, could spell volatility

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1.       Economy

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  • Eyes trained on interest rate policy as per usual
  • Next big date is Fed meeting on February 1st to discuss latest monetary policy
  • Bank of Canada meets Wednesday, expectations it raises rates by 0.25% to 4.50%
  • Q4 GDP Data from last year in the US is out Thursday, an important gauge which will bear weight on Fed’s decision
  • PCE data announced Friday

2.       Stock Market

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  • S&P 500 oscillates around 4,000, treading water for last two weeks
  • Earnings season continues – Tesla to be announced today
  • Microsoft earnings yesterday were negative regarding future, pulling back tech stocks
  • Volatility could be seen Friday once PCE data is out

3.       Crypto

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  • Crypto has been steady this week, Bitcoin holding around $23K
  •  Headlines that Binance mistakenly mixed collateral with customer assets are concerning, yet again highlighting how beholden the market is to these centralised companies
  • Coinbase has attacked Binance, alleging front-running and insider information
  • Earnings and tech outlook remains crucial for crypto, as the sector eyes the all-important February 1st Fed meeting

4.       Other assets

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  • Gold trading in tight range ahead of economic data later this week
  • Remains close to all-time highs, eyeing psychologically important $2,000 level
  • AUD/USD strengthen to highest level since last August following positive Australian inflation data
  • USD/JPY showing choppy action since weakening of Yen following last week’s announcement by the Bank of Japan that no change would be made to yield curve control

5.       What to look out for

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  • Tesla earnings today should give latest forecast of outlook in tech sector, and crypto will move off this accordingly
  • US GDP data tomorrow and PCE data Friday will be key indicators. Market could jump off back of these if positive, especially with inflation having softened
  •  Next Wednesday remains the big one, with possibly the most significant Fed meeting yet given talk of a sooner pivot has reached its highest point yet

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