Bitcoin’s rocky start to October: will bulls rebound?

Bitcoin (BTC) is off to a shaky start in October, a month known for its historically strong performance.

On Thursday, BTC briefly dipped below $60,000 before recovering slightly, leading to the liquidation of over $144 million in bullish bets.

The cryptocurrency is now trading just over $61,300, showing little change in the past 24 hours despite market volatility.

Other major digital assets such as Ether (ETH), BNB (BNB), and XRP (XRP) experienced losses of up to 2%, while Dogecoin (DOGE) saw a surprise 2% rise without a clear reason.

The CoinDesk 20 Index, which tracks the top cryptocurrencies, also slipped by 1%.

October's legacy vs. current sentiment: will Bitcoin bounce back?

Since 2013, October has only twice ended in the red for Bitcoin, typically delivering impressive returns—up to 60% and averaging 22%.

However, this year’s 6% decline since the start of the month has dampened the usual optimism.

Polymarket bettors remain cautious about Bitcoin’s potential rise, ruling out a surge to $70,000. Instead, they predict the price will range between $57,500 and $65,000.

Historical data from CoinGlass supports this cautious outlook, showing that Bitcoin typically struggles during the first week of October before rallying mid-month.

Significant price jumps, often as high as 16%, have occurred after October 15.

Global tensions and market shifts: the pressure on Bitcoin

Geopolitical events are also impacting Bitcoin’s price.

Tensions in the Middle East have shifted investor focus towards safer assets like oil and gold.

Brent crude oil saw its largest one-day increase in nearly a year, with an 8% weekly gain anticipated.

On Polymarket, bettors give a 63% chance that Israel will target Iranian oil facilities this month, adding further uncertainty to global markets.

Crypto and politics: market reactions and trends

The tight US presidential race is also contributing to market unpredictability.

Polymarket shows the two leading candidates neck and neck, influencing sentiment across sectors.

Meanwhile, Trump-themed cryptocurrencies like TREMP are up 14%, while MAGA remains flat.

The Kamala Harris-themed KAMA token has dropped by 7.5%.

Despite a rough start, historical patterns and external factors suggest that Bitcoin could still see gains later in the month, giving bulls some reason to remain hopeful.