USD/NOK analysis ahead of the Norges Bank rates decision

The USD/NOK exchange rate jumped to its highest level since March 2020 as crude oil prices dropped and as the US dollar index surged. The pair was trading at 11.35 on Thursday morning as traders waited for the upcoming Norges interest rate decision.

Federal Reserve decision

The USD/NOK exchange rate reacted to the latest Federal Reserve decision, which was relatively more hawkish than expected.

The Fed decided fo slash interest rates by 0.25% as was widely expected, bringing the official cash rate to between 4.25% and 4.50%. It has now slashed rates by 1% this year. 

Officials hinted that they will deliver two more rate cuts in 2024, lower than the expected two, making the Fed highly hawkish.

These officials are mostly concerned about the upcoming Donald Trump administration that has proposed some highly inflationary policies.

Trump has pledged to deport millions of illegal immigrants, a move that will affect the already tight labor market. He also wants to announce large tariffs on imports and lower taxes.

Fed officials also tweaked their inflation estimates. They now expect that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) will fall to 2% by 2026, meaning that rates may stay higher for longer.

The US dollar index surged hard after the Fed decision as other assets like the Dow Jones and Bitcoin slumped hard.

Norges Bank and oil prices

The next important USD/NOK news will be the upcoming Norges Bank interest rate decision. Unlike the Federal Reserve and other central banks, Norges has left rates unchanged in the last eight consecutive meetings. It has left them at 4.50% and analysts expect the bank to maintain that view in this meeting.

Still, the bank will likely hint that it will start cutting rates in the coming meetings since inflation has fallen. The most recent data showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) has dropped to 2.4% from the 2022 high of 7.5%. 

Norges Bank will also slash rates because of the ongoing weakness in Europe, its biggest trading market. 

The USD/NOK pair has also rallied because of the energy market, which has deteriorated this year. Brent, the global oil benchmark, has dropped to $70 from the year-to-date high of over $100.

The Norwegian krona reacts to the oil market because Norway is one of the biggest oil exporting countries in Europe.

USD/NOK technical analysis

The USD/NOK exchange rate has been in a strong uptrend in the past few weeks. It has now soared above the important resistance point at 11.28, the upper side of the ascending triangle pattern.

The pair has also moved above the 50-week moving average, while most oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have all tilted upwards. Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the next key resistance level at 11.50.

A drop below the support at 11.28 will invalidate the bullish view and point to more downside, potentially to 11.