India’s wheat harvest faces climate threat as temperatures rise

India is on the brink of experiencing a hotter than usual start to the summer season, with forecasts indicating one of the warmest March months in recorded history. 

The anticipated above-average temperatures throughout a significant portion of the month are raising concerns among agricultural experts, as they pose a substantial risk to the yields of the maturing wheat crop, Reuters reported. 

This prediction comes from credible sources within the meteorological department, who have been closely monitoring weather patterns and trends. 

Negative impact

The excessive heat can negatively impact the wheat crop's development during its crucial growth stages, potentially leading to reduced grain size, shriveled kernels, and overall lower yields. 

This could have significant implications for India's food security and agricultural economy, as wheat is a staple food and a major contributor to the country's agricultural output.

India, which is the world's second-largest wheat producer, has experienced three consecutive years of poor crop yields since 2022. 

To avoid costly imports, the country is depending on a bumper wheat harvest in 2025.

The impact of sustained high temperatures on India's wheat production is a growing concern. 

If the current trend continues, this could be the fourth consecutive year that wheat yields are negatively affected by heat stress. 

Meanwhile, top wheat producing country, Russia could also face similar situation with its wheat production this year as temperatures rise.

Potential shortages in market

Reduced yields would lead to lower overall production, potentially creating shortages in the domestic market.

To address potential shortages and ensure adequate wheat supply for consumers, authorities may be forced to take action. 

This could include lowering or even temporarily removing the existing 40% import tax on wheat. 

Reducing or eliminating the import tax would make it more economically viable for traders to import wheat from other countries, helping to bridge the gap between domestic supply and demand. 

Sizzling temperatures on the horizon

A senior official at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) was quoted in the report as saying:

The IMD will release its forecast for March temperatures on Friday. 

Day temperatures are predicted to begin increasing from the second week of March. 

By the end of the month, maximum temperatures in many states could surpass 40 degrees Celsius (104°F).

India had to ban wheat exports in 2022 due to a significant decrease in wheat production caused by unexpectedly high temperatures in February and March of that year.

Maximum temperatures in India's central and northern wheat-growing states are expected to rise sharply beginning in the second week of March, potentially reaching 6 degrees Celsius above average, according to a second official from IMD.

"March is not going to be conducive for wheat, chickpea and rapeseed. Crops could experience heat stress," he said.

Winter crops at risk

Wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas are winter crops that are planted from October to December during the rabi season. 

These crops require cold temperatures throughout their growth cycle to produce optimal yields. 

Due to dwindling supplies, Indian wheat prices reached a record high this month.

"February was pretty warm. If March stays hotter than normal, wheat production could take a big hit," a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house was quoted in the report.