Goldman Sachs trims oil forecast amid rising Iranian supply expectations

Goldman Sachs on Sunday said it is maintaining a guarded stance on oil prices, holding its forecasts below current futures despite signs of stronger global economic growth.

The investment bank cited the likely increase in Iranian crude supply and a rise in OECD commercial inventories as factors that could counterbalance the supportive effect of higher GDP.

The bank has kept its Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price projections unchanged at $60 and $56 per barrel respectively for the rest of 2025.

For 2026, the forecast slips further to $56 for Brent and $52 for WTI, representing a discount of $8 below current forward prices.

Possible US-Iran nuclear deal raises Iranian oil supply expectations

Goldman Sachs revised its Iranian crude supply estimate to 3.6 million barrels per day for the second half of 2025 through 2026.

The upward adjustment follows media reports of progress on a potential nuclear agreement between the US and Iran.

President Donald Trump stated last week that the two countries are "very close" to reaching a deal.

Should an agreement materialize and be sustainably implemented, the bank expects Iranian crude supply could increase further by several hundred thousand barrels per day, adding additional pressure on oil prices.

GDP growth spurs higher demand forecast, but not enough to lift prices

Despite the bearish supply-side factors, Goldman raised its global oil demand growth forecast due to lower tariffs and improving economic activity.

The bank now projects Q4-to-Q4 demand growth of 0.6 million barrels per day in 2025 and 0.4 million in 2026 — a 0.3 and 0.1 mb/d increase respectively from earlier estimates.

Still, this upward revision is not enough to outweigh the oversupply concerns, especially with high inventory levels and uncertainty over OPEC's production strategy.

In a more severe scenario involving both a global GDP slowdown and a full unwind of OPEC production cuts, Goldman predicts Brent could drop to $40 by late 2026.

Trump’s price preference for WTI

Last week Goldman analysts also noted President Trump's ongoing commentary on oil prices via social media.

Their in-house review found nearly 900 posts, reflecting a clear preference for keeping WTI between $40 and $50 a barrel.

Trump has typically called for lower prices when oil rises above $50 and higher prices when it falls below $30, aligning with his stated goal of maintaining US energy dominance and curbing inflation.

Market prices and broader energy implications

As of early Monday, Brent crude futures were trading at $65.24 per barrel, while WTI was at $62.38.

The ongoing geopolitical shifts and changing demand dynamics continue to fuel volatility in global oil markets.

These developments could influence energy strategies of nations and corporations alike, with potential ramifications for traditional oil economies and a possible acceleration in the shift toward alternative energy sources.